Latest output data suggests the stimulus-generated surge in construction might be over

Latest output data suggests the stimulus-generated surge in construction might be over

The latest monthly construction output figures suggest that the surge in work seen in the mid part of 2010 is beginning to fade. A significant pulling forward of public spending helped to underpin housing construction, to propel publicly funded work and engender more confidence in private sector construction work. This created a swell in construction activity, which has caused some kerfuffle among economists as it has been the main driver of overall growth in the economy – although recent revisions…

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Halifax shows continued slide in house prices…but the real market test comes in the New Year

Halifax shows continued slide in house prices…but the real market test comes in the New Year

The Halifax house price index crept down today and appears to be on a path of slow decline, which is broadly in line with most other house price indicators. And as we can see from the graph transactions remain subdued and mortgage approvals are also on a gentle downward slide. But while the current slide in the market may be unsettling, it will be the next few months that will prove particularly nail biting for those whose fortunes are pinned…

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Forecasters foresee a long road to recovery for construction

Forecasters foresee a long road to recovery for construction

The latest forecast for construction growth to emerge from the Construction Products Association suggests that construction will not see growth of any significance for at least the next two years.  However, while the central projection is for a distinct double-dip in workload, even the most pessimistic scenario presented by the forecasters does not envisage a drop in construction much beyond 5%.  That would be painful but far from as dramatic as the 17% collapse from the peak quarter at the start of 2008…

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New orders data point to coming dip in construction output

New orders data point to coming dip in construction output

The official figures for orders for new construction work in the third quarter of this year were not a particular surprise, but they do reveal starkly just how fragile prospects are for the industry. The graph below shows clearly the impact of the fiscal stimulus, which reversed the tailspin in orders. But now that public spending is in retreat we are seeing orders fall away at an accelerating rate. So in time we should expect to see the same for…

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Sticks for the North, carrots for the South in the New Home Bonus handicap race

Sticks for the North, carrots for the South in the New Home Bonus handicap race

Long before he was in office the Housing Minister Grant Shapps evangelised about the New Homes Bonus in a way that suggested it would lead to a new world where local residents badgered their councils to grant permissions for more homes. I’ll confess my initial reactions to the early presentations more than a year ago might fairly be regarded as sceptical, even though I am in favour of incentives to prompt development. Still, in April next year, if all goes…

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Forecasters at Leading Edge see growth after a shallow drop next year

Forecasters at Leading Edge see growth after a shallow drop next year

The latest forecast from Leading Edge may provide some comfort to those who are fretful about the prospects of ever deeper declines in the construction industry as public funds rapidly shrink. Yes, the forecast sees a drop in output next year – 0.9% after 3.2% growth this year. But the Leading Edge team are optimistic that growth in the private sector will accelerate to buoy construction overall and more than compensate for the loss work funded by the public purse….

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Construction’s downward revision yet to show in GDP figures

Construction’s downward revision yet to show in GDP figures

There will no doubt be eagle-eyed stat watchers checking on the latest official release for UK’s economic growth who are wondering why there has been no revision to the second quarter GDP. It still stands at 1.2%. If you remember the second quarter growth rate for construction output for Great Britain was revised substantially down from 9.6% to 6.6% and this was expected to have an impact on the UK GDP measure – knocking it from the 1.2% to 1.0%, all…

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RICS survey points heavily to a return to recession

RICS survey points heavily to a return to recession

Today’s construction survey released by the surveyors’ body RICS adds more weight to the fears that construction is set for a plunge back into recession, showing as it does that more surveyors are seeing workload falling than rising. Asked whether workload had increased or decreased on the previous quarter, the survey found a negative balance of 10% which follows on from a negative balance of 5% in the previous survey three months earlier. This suggests that workload is falling among…

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House building recovery stalls and a further fall can’t be ruled out

House building recovery stalls and a further fall can’t be ruled out

There is no way that you can look at the latest set of house building figures for England in the third quarter of this year and suggest they look good. Yes it is true that private sector housing completions were up for the second consecutive quarter as the press release points out, but they were lower by 4% than in the same quarter a year ago. Furthermore, the completions we see in the third quarter represent a view taken by…

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Jobs scene a little brighter today – but what does the future hold?

Jobs scene a little brighter today – but what does the future hold?

The rate of construction redundancies in the third quarter of this year returned closer to pre-recession levels with “just” 18,000 employees recorded as being made redundant in the three months July to September. And if we didn’t know what we do know about the future we might suggest that the latest employment figures taken as a whole provide reasons to be positive. Across the economy as a whole, more people have jobs, fewer are unemployment and the claimant count is…

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