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How the official statistics for construction output compare with the trade surveys

How the official statistics for construction output compare with the trade surveys

Today’s Office for National Statistics construction output figures seem to correspond broadly with the picture emerging from recent trade surveys. The output data point to a sharp fall in construction in the first quarter, with public sector work taking a hammering. The drop may be more severe than one might have expected looking at the balance of data from the trade surveys, but across the piece with the odd exception the trade surveys do suggest a poor start to the year. Encouraging,…

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Whatever the revisions to the official figures they point to a tough time for construction

Whatever the revisions to the official figures they point to a tough time for construction

The Office for National Statistics confirmed its preliminary estimate that construction was again in technical recession. Indeed its latest estimate is that construction fell further in the first quarter of this year, dropping by 4.8% rather than the 3% it estimated for the GDP figures released late last month. Not too much should be read into the revision. The scope for revisions up and down was great as the initial stab was based on limited data. It was also unclear…

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The solution is construction, but the answer is not just any old construction – Part 2

The solution is construction, but the answer is not just any old construction – Part 2

Yesterday’s blog looked at the need to boost construction and the huge benefits the nation gains from focusing on job-intensive work. Today we’ll look at how else we might boost construction to generate economic growth and, interestingly, reduce the deficit. But before that it’s worth noting that favouring job-intensive construction is not just about where to channel public spending. It’s also about how Government frames policy and incentives. Yesterday I received a tweet putting the case for cutting VAT to 5% on repair…

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The solution is construction, but the answer is not just any old construction – Part 1

The solution is construction, but the answer is not just any old construction – Part 1

The growing backlash against austerity economics in Europe and the drubbing in the polls has presented a huge challenge for the UK’s coalition partners. If Cameron’s cabinet doesn’t yield on its deficit reduction programme it will have to find growth from somewhere and fast. It must also give electors hope and convince them that its policies are fair. Sage commentators have repeatedly said since the outset of the financial crisis that any sustainable solution must address social cohesion as well…

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As official figures point to decline, Markit/CIPS survey suggests the good times are back

As official figures point to decline, Markit/CIPS survey suggests the good times are back

The latest construction survey from Markit/CIPS points once again to an industry firmly in growth. Its main PMI indicator for April reads 55.8, with 50 being no growth. This reading will put more heat into the row over whether the official statistics that show construction in recession provide a fair reading. Although the Markit/CIPS survey shows suggests a slight relaxation in growth when compared with last month’s reading, it continues a trend that points to pretty respectable growth. The recent readings…

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How the 3% fall in construction output could have been worse

How the 3% fall in construction output could have been worse

The estimated collapse of 3% in construction output in the first quarter could so easily have been much worse had the methodology team at ONS not spotted a quirk in the seasonal pattern. This led to an adjustment upward from a drop of 4% to the recorded drop of 3%. Without going into technical detail that I don’t fully understand, the connection of the old series to the new series in January 2010 created a “seasonal break”. There’s a whole host of…

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Plunge in construction pushes UK into recession

Plunge in construction pushes UK into recession

Today’s GDP figures will come as unwelcome news to the Government. The data suggest the UK again is in a technical recession, falling by an unexpected 0.2% in the first quarter. A large factor in this decline in growth was down to construction. The GDP data for construction suggest the industry saw a 3% decline in the first quarter of this year. This follows a fall of 0.2% in the final quarter of last year and technically puts construction into…

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What if ONS reports a construction collapse tomorrow?

What if ONS reports a construction collapse tomorrow?

Tomorrow we get the first hint of how construction might perform this year when the Gross Domestic Product preliminary estimate figures for the first quarter are released. Looking at the initial data on construction output for this year, I suggest everyone should be prepared for a nasty number to emerge within the data for construction’s contribution. But while I think it likely, that doesn’t mean it will. There are things we don’t know. What will early returns for March show?…

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Why last week’s rise in inflation should not have been a surprise but an important reminder

Why last week’s rise in inflation should not have been a surprise but an important reminder

The Bank of England seems to have taken a kicking in the press following the release last week of the Office of National Statistics estimate for inflation in March. The reports seem to fixate on the uptick to CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.5% in March. This rise did not fit, in the view of many economic commentators, the script written by the Bank of England in its latest Inflation Report. Although in fairness the report did point…

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The positive possibilities emerging from some very negative probabilities for construction

The positive possibilities emerging from some very negative probabilities for construction

There’s very often a paradoxical upside to bad news, as I’m sure the Taoists among us will readily accept. It will be disturbing news if the next set of stats show that measured construction output collapsed in the first of this year. But, weird as it may seem, that might just provide a fillip for real action to support an industry that gets more political attention than it does sensible assistance. Let’s start the story from the growing media attention…

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