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First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

Be prepared for a slower recovery than we were expecting – that’s that message from the first of autumn construction forecasts to emerge. Leading Edge had already penned in a double-dip recession for construction when it last produced a forecast in March, but now it expects the fall to be deeper and the recovery to be slower.

Worst orders figures on record suggest the worst on the ground is yet to come

Worst orders figures on record suggest the worst on the ground is yet to come

There are times when you hope you’re misreading data or that there may be an error. But it doesn’t look as though these crutches are available as I stare at the carnage implicit in the new orders data. The index, which represents a seasonally-adjusted price-adjusted measure of orders taken by contractors for new work has hit a record low. It stands at 57.5 for the second quarter of this year. Five years ago it stood at almost double that. (see…

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Let’s not waste this crisis of confidence over the construction output figures

Let’s not waste this crisis of confidence over the construction output figures

The Office for National Statistics has come in for yet another beating over the construction figures, this time receiving a stern letter of criticism from the chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Michael Scholar. I for one am hopeful that this might prompt a full-scale investigation of the construction output stats, which goes beyond the fact that someone got their sums wrong.

Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Lost in the confusion caused by the adding up error made by the ONS in the original release last week of the construction output figures was one rather significant change to the data series. In rough and ready terms the post-recession construction industry is now officially almost 7% bigger than we used to think it was. Meanwhile, the collapse in construction between early 2008 and early 2010 is now officially calculated to be 16.0% rather than 13.7%.

Construction output figures in the dock: the case for the defence

Construction output figures in the dock: the case for the defence

In my chats with national statisticians about the troublesome output statistics, I sense it was the word “baloney” used by Kier chief Paul Sheffield that irritated more than most other comments on the figures. The word troubled me, probably for different reasons. I take cursing seriously and the use of out-of-vogue slang emanating from the Italian-Irish-American inter-war gangster era for some reason just jarred. Still, the Office for National Statistics decided to hit back at the growing criticism of –…

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Awful January construction output figures may just be the result of a hangover from December

Awful January construction output figures may just be the result of a hangover from December

The latest construction output figures seem to confirm the need to be cautious over divining too much from one month’s data. The figures suggest that less work was done in January than in December, despite the shutdown of sites across the country due to heavy snow late last year. What’s more they are not that much better than the figures for January last year, which was also hit by bad weather. If the data provide an accurate representation of what…

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Construction probably didn’t shrink 3.3% in the final quarter…at least we don’t know that it did.

Construction probably didn’t shrink 3.3% in the final quarter…at least we don’t know that it did.

The figure for construction output within the latest “shock” GDP preliminary estimate figures showed construction output for the UK down 3.3% in the final quarter compared with the previous quarter. The release also estimated that the snow effect on construction alone caused a drop in quarterly GDP of 0.1%. Well did construction output fall by 3.3%?

Imports figures support official stats showing a strong bounce back for construction in 2009

Imports figures support official stats showing a strong bounce back for construction in 2009

Here’s a couple of graphs that hopefully will bring a little Christmas cheer to the statisticians at ONS who have been putting together the much queried new construction output figures. They may also bring a little cheer too to the statistics team that puts together the building materials imports figures, which also come in for criticism from time to time. Constant criticism, sadly, is the lot of the statistician. (And in the spirit of credit where credit is due, I…

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Forecasters at Leading Edge see growth after a shallow drop next year

Forecasters at Leading Edge see growth after a shallow drop next year

The latest forecast from Leading Edge may provide some comfort to those who are fretful about the prospects of ever deeper declines in the construction industry as public funds rapidly shrink. Yes, the forecast sees a drop in output next year – 0.9% after 3.2% growth this year. But the Leading Edge team are optimistic that growth in the private sector will accelerate to buoy construction overall and more than compensate for the loss work funded by the public purse….

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10 things that might be causing weirdness in the construction output figures

10 things that might be causing weirdness in the construction output figures

Can we accept unquestioned the construction figures presented by the latest preliminary estimate of UK economic growth? To do so is to accept that construction is enjoying workloads at a level that just three years ago were close to pushing the industry’s capacity to its limits. What’s more the rate of growth being enjoyed by construction – 14% or so over six months – is seen by many who follow the numbers as astonishing and for some incredible. But before launching…

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