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Tag: recession

Does the whole GDP debate really rest on dodgy construction output figures?

Does the whole GDP debate really rest on dodgy construction output figures?

It has long been said that construction is an important bellwether in determining the shape of the nation’s economic progress. Today the performance of construction, or rather revisions to its measured performance, seemingly determined how close the UK is to recovery. The upwardly revised construction data put the nation yet closer to its official exit from recession. Whether we are in or out of recession has huge political significance. But for me it is interesting to note just how much store is…

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Are we witnessing an upswing in construction output? In a word: No

Are we witnessing an upswing in construction output? In a word: No

So its official – the construction recession isn’t as bad as we thought. And the even better news is that the sharp fall in output at the start of this year wasn’t anywhere near as sharp as last quarter’s figures had suggested. That at least is how the national statisticians might have us see it. The official figures for construction workload show a jump of 2% between the second and third quarters of this year. Workloads were boosted, the figures…

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Christmas sales come to the housing market

Christmas sales come to the housing market

It’s the run up to Christmas and we’re in a recession – well if not technically, we’re definitely suffering from the recession – so don’t be surprised to see redundancies on the rise and asking prices for homes on the decline. It is the nature of things. And in this regard we have not been let down by the price data research from the property websites Rightmove and FindaProperty. Both show the recent rally in asking prices reversing this month….

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Falling construction helps hold UK in recession

Falling construction helps hold UK in recession

An estimated fall of 1.1% in construction output in the third quarter of this year has helped to hold the UK economic growth in recessionary territory. Much to the surprise of many analysts the UK economy appears to have remained in recession, with GDP output falling 0.4% in the three months of July, August and September. These are however only preliminary estimates and will be revised. And in recent quarters revisions to the estimated construction output have caused sharp revisions….

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Forecasts suggest some rays of hope, but huge uncertainty remains

Forecasts suggest some rays of hope, but huge uncertainty remains

For those with an optimistic nature there was some good news to be seen in the latest set of industry forecasts with both the Construction Products Association and Hewes trimming how much they feel output in the industry will fall. Indeed the three forecasts came closer together in this round of forecasting as Experian took a marginally dimmer view of 2009. This convergence hints at there being more certainty about the near term direction of construction than there was. That…

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How much has the recession cost house builders? um…

How much has the recession cost house builders? um…

During a conversation with a colleague on the recent spate of cash calls by house builders I was quizzed on how much damage the recession had done to their balance sheets. I made a stab (a lucky guess as it turned out), but I should have had a number at my figure tips. I waffled while I grabbed a calculator and tapped in some very rough and ready numbers. Well have a guess how much that bit of number crunching…

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Duff jobs figures pose a threat to construction industry

Duff jobs figures pose a threat to construction industry

The official employment figures released today show that the construction industry has lost just 40,000 jobs. That clearly is rubbish. Were the figures accurate and were the construction output figures accurate it would suggest that as the industry has plunged into recession overall labour productivity for the construction sector has fallen by about 16%. OK there may be a bit of a lag effect, but ultimately the output is in large part down to the people doing it, so I’d…

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5 reasons why we might be facing the mother of all construction recessions

5 reasons why we might be facing the mother of all construction recessions

It’s coming around to the construction forecasting season again and the industry prognosticators will be gathering to discuss the ups and downs of the industry. If I were you, I’d be bracing myself for some pretty savage revisions to what already look like pretty savage forecasts. Peak to trough in the 90’s recession we saw a drop in volume terms of 14% in workload. In the 1980s recession it was 16% and in the 1970s it was 20%, according to…

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NHBC figures show new home starts down 47% in 2008

NHBC figures show new home starts down 47% in 2008

The number of NHBC registrations to start building new homes fell to 106,894 in 2008, a drop of 47% on a year earlier. But it is the comparison of the final quarter of 2008 with that of 2007 that brings the true scale of the trauma in the house building market into sharp focus. The industry started fewer than 30% as many homes between October and the end of the year in 2008 than a year earlier.

Construction firms owe £30 billion to trade creditors

Construction firms owe £30 billion to trade creditors

I am in the midst of putting together data for the Contract Journal Construction Top 100 and there were a couple of figures I thought worth sharing that have come out of some analysis on trade debt and credit. From the number crunching I am doing I have estimated that construction firms owe about £30 billion to their trade creditors and are owed about £23 billion from trade debtors. I hasten to add that this is an estimate and I…

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