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Tag: public spending

It’s time for Shapps to find a big bazooka

It’s time for Shapps to find a big bazooka

In September 2010 Grant Shapps set a “Gold Standard” against which he, as housing minister, would be judged – to see a house-building rate at least matching that achieved before the recession. There are few targets (political hostages to fortune, perhaps) discernable from the reams of documentation and hours of speeches and statements made by this Government. But this is one. It is important. The consensus is England needs more homes. Sorry, a lot more homes, more even than the previous…

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Latest output figures suggest construction is sliding into recession

Latest output figures suggest construction is sliding into recession

Today’s construction output figures are a bit of a mixed bag suggesting things are getting worse, but that they were not as bad as we thought they were. The headline figure is that output over the three months to October was down by 1.1% compared with a year ago. And, as is clear from the graph, on the basis of the latest figures the industry does appear to be subsiding into recession. The graph shows the monthly progression of the…

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Latest ONS construction data point to growth in 2011 – that’s not what the industry thinks

Latest ONS construction data point to growth in 2011 – that’s not what the industry thinks

Expect another row to erupt over the latest set of revisions to the construction output figures. If we accept the latest data, the suggestion now is that construction output in 2011 will be up by about 3% on its 2010 level, in the absence of a catastrophic collapse in the final three months of the year. The revisions added about 1% to official construction output in the first half of 2011. The most notable revision is to growth in output…

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Be prepared for a very different construction industry when we rise from depression

Be prepared for a very different construction industry when we rise from depression

This is no ordinary recession. This is a serious depression, the end of which still looks to be at least a couple of years away and possibly a lot further. If that proves the case it would have lasted longer than the Great Depression of the 1930s, although the recession would not have been as quite as deep. The well respected economist and Financial Times commentator Martin Wolf recently wrote: “The UK is in the midst of what is set…

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Reasons to be cheerful as the official construction figures show output dropping

Reasons to be cheerful as the official construction figures show output dropping

The latest official data seem to provide yet more evidence of the decline in construction output, although the picture may not be as bleak – yet – as the published figures suggest if taken at face value. You shouldn’t really read too much into one month’s figures anyway in an industry that can be highly volatile and that is going through a particularly volatile phase. But people will and I am obliged to do it for a living. That said…

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Pan-industry construction survey points to weak private sector recovery

Pan-industry construction survey points to weak private sector recovery

The latest pan-industry trade survey compiled by the Construction Products Association economics team paints a perhaps predictably gloomy picture of the state of the industry in the second quarter of this year. The survey suggests that the upswing it recorded in output from contractors in the first quarter was short-lived. The balance of firms doing more work and those do less is was put at -37%. That’s the worst figures for a year and a half. The more detailed figures…

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Construction output: So far it’s better than last year, but can that last?

Construction output: So far it’s better than last year, but can that last?

The construction firms may be suffering and may be shedding jobs, but the bald statistics so far for this year suggest that the industry is faring better than the gloomy news might have some believe. The latest construction output figures show that in pure cash terms the industry pocketed about £1.24 billion more in the first five months of this year than in the same period in 2010. And 2010 proved a pretty good year in the end, with output…

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Forecasters see pain deferred as recessions takes longer to bite in construction

Forecasters see pain deferred as recessions takes longer to bite in construction

The latest construction output forecast from the materials producers body Construction Products Association suggests pain deferred for the industry. The revised view is that this year will be less bad than the forecasters first thought, but next year will be worse and the recovery expected in 2013 will be weaker. The main thinking behind this gentle revision is that the fall off in public spending on construction is happening slower than was previously expected, having interpreted the Government spending plans….

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