I and others have long held doubts about accuracy of the private housing repair and maintenance series within the construction output data. And if there is a fault with the data series it is important that it be addressed if policy makers, analysts and academics are not to draw wrong inferences from it.
It’s coming around to the construction forecasting season again and the industry prognosticators will be gathering to discuss the ups and downs of the industry. If I were you, I’d be bracing myself for some pretty savage revisions to what already look like pretty savage forecasts. Peak to trough in the 90’s recession we saw a drop in volume terms of 14% in workload. In the 1980s recession it was 16% and in the 1970s it was 20%, according to…
The first of the spring forecasts for construction has winged its way into my inbox. It is the Hewes and Associates’ forecast. Hewes expects on the basis of current data that levels of construction output will fall back to those last seen in 1996 before we see a recovery. This may seem a bit drastic, but I fully expect other forecasters to be plotting the future in a similar direction. Broadly the forecast is of the same shape as that…