Few signs in construction output figures of private sector revival. But who really knows?
Only a fool would try to make sense out of the latest set of ONS construction output figures. So here goes.
Orders figures support view that there is cause for concern in construction
The main message in the construction new orders figures released by ONS this morning is that the slope is downward and this is points to further falls in output in the future. And, to put them in context, against peak levels in cash terms orders for new construction work are down about a third. But more worryingly we don’t appear to be seeing the kind of acceleration in the private sector we would need to compensate for the losses faced in public…
We need a thorough review of the construction figures new and old
The latest release of construction output data underlines the critical importance of examining the accuracy and timing of the data, both the new series and the old. Calculations show that even slight variations to the current data can have a profound impact on the message the figures are sending to policy makers and business users. This is partly because of the high volatility in the construction market and the timing of the severe weather last winter, which brought much of…
Construction figures pose a real headache for GDP estimates
The latest official figures for construction output suggest a leap of 8.6% in construction work in February following the recorded fall of 6.8% in January. What does this tell us?
Hire firm activity bounces in January – suggesting output was better than official figures show
There’s further support for the argument that January wasn’t really as bad as the construction output figures might have us think.
2010 saw fastest growth since the 1980s boom – but we are on the way down again
The impact of the economic stimulus on construction is clear when we look at the phenomenal growth the industry enjoyed in 2010. The latest set of construction output figures put volume growth for 2010 at about 6.2%, although the amount of cash pocketed by the industry rose by just 3.8% as a result of falling prices. In volume terms this represents the biggest annual jump in output recorded since the late 1980s boom. And by the time the statisticians at…
1.2 million more dwellings than households – is that right?
The latest chapter of the Social Trends analysis produced by the statistician’s at ONS covers housing. It pulls together familiar data and will tell the cognoscenti little or nothing they don’t already know. But interestingly you don’t have to pass the first graph before widely held assumptions are challenged. It is taken as fact by the overwhelming proportion of politicians and housing professionals that there is a housing shortage. Well here is Figure 1. Pull the numbers apart and we…
Construction probably didn’t shrink 3.3% in the final quarter…at least we don’t know that it did.
The figure for construction output within the latest “shock” GDP preliminary estimate figures showed construction output for the UK down 3.3% in the final quarter compared with the previous quarter. The release also estimated that the snow effect on construction alone caused a drop in quarterly GDP of 0.1%. Well did construction output fall by 3.3%?
November construction output figures suggest it’s downhill from here
Construction output is beginning finally to show signs that it is falling into a much-expected second dip into recession after the stimulus-propelled growth earlier this year. The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics show that on a moving three-month basis the industry contracted by 1.5% in volume terms in November. The graph (right) shows the moving three-month total for output, with simple straight line estimates for monthly movements in the totals made for the pre-2010 data, which was…
Imports figures support official stats showing a strong bounce back for construction in 2009
Here’s a couple of graphs that hopefully will bring a little Christmas cheer to the statisticians at ONS who have been putting together the much queried new construction output figures. They may also bring a little cheer too to the statistics team that puts together the building materials imports figures, which also come in for criticism from time to time. Constant criticism, sadly, is the lot of the statistician. (And in the spirit of credit where credit is due, I…