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No sign in the data that construction employment is plunging again – not yet anyway

No sign in the data that construction employment is plunging again – not yet anyway

There is no getting away from the fact that the latest UK jobs figures are depressing. There’ll be plenty of discussion about that in the general news. And it bodes ill for the economy overall and in turn for construction. But for those looking for gloom in the construction jobs figures, the data does not seem to support the view that employment levels are once again plunging. The quarterly workforce jobs figures were not updated this month. But the alternative Labour…

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Latest ONS construction data point to growth in 2011 – that’s not what the industry thinks

Latest ONS construction data point to growth in 2011 – that’s not what the industry thinks

Expect another row to erupt over the latest set of revisions to the construction output figures. If we accept the latest data, the suggestion now is that construction output in 2011 will be up by about 3% on its 2010 level, in the absence of a catastrophic collapse in the final three months of the year. The revisions added about 1% to official construction output in the first half of 2011. The most notable revision is to growth in output…

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Reasons to be cheerful as the official construction figures show output dropping

Reasons to be cheerful as the official construction figures show output dropping

The latest official data seem to provide yet more evidence of the decline in construction output, although the picture may not be as bleak – yet – as the published figures suggest if taken at face value. You shouldn’t really read too much into one month’s figures anyway in an industry that can be highly volatile and that is going through a particularly volatile phase. But people will and I am obliged to do it for a living. That said…

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Construction output is heading into decline, but how fast and how far?

Construction output is heading into decline, but how fast and how far?

There was good news in today’s release of the latest GB construction output figures. The data was revised to show the second quarter growth rate at 1.1% rather than the 0.5% published a month ago. But for most in the construction industry it may be all a bit academic how we reinterpret the past. What matters more is what just happened and what does that tell us about what is going to happen. On this score the figures appear on…

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Let’s not waste this crisis of confidence over the construction output figures

Let’s not waste this crisis of confidence over the construction output figures

The Office for National Statistics has come in for yet another beating over the construction figures, this time receiving a stern letter of criticism from the chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Michael Scholar. I for one am hopeful that this might prompt a full-scale investigation of the construction output stats, which goes beyond the fact that someone got their sums wrong.

Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Lost in the confusion caused by the adding up error made by the ONS in the original release last week of the construction output figures was one rather significant change to the data series. In rough and ready terms the post-recession construction industry is now officially almost 7% bigger than we used to think it was. Meanwhile, the collapse in construction between early 2008 and early 2010 is now officially calculated to be 16.0% rather than 13.7%.

Lacklustre construction output figures point to decline

Lacklustre construction output figures point to decline

The latest GB construction output figures follow the earlier estimate made for the UK GDP series, which put growth in the second quarter at 0.5%. This was a bit lacklustre. The figures were particularly disappointing after the ONS put out a release which in error put the growth rate at 2.3%. This erroneous figure pointed to an upward revision of 0.1% to be added to GDP when it is next revised. This hope has now been dashed and will not…

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RICS sees some positive signs in the private sector, but its London and South East driven

RICS sees some positive signs in the private sector, but its London and South East driven

Viewed from a particular angle the latest construction survey from RICS seems to come out fairly positive given the current circumstances in which the industry finds itself, although it’s not as upbeat as yesterday’s serving from Markit/CIPS. Workloads are broadly flat according to the RICS survey respondents, which is a bonus in my book given the state of the economy and the outlook.

Jobs and pay data do little to perk up waning hopes for growth

Jobs and pay data do little to perk up waning hopes for growth

The latest jobs and pay data released by the Office for National Statistics today provide little by way of comfort about the economy or, more specifically, for those in the construction industry. There was an improvement in the numbers employed with 50,000 more in employment over the past three months to May and 26,000 fewer were counted as unemployed. But we have seen a continued rise in the claimant count. And annual pay rose at an annual rate of just 2.3%,…

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Construction output figures in the dock: the case for the defence

Construction output figures in the dock: the case for the defence

In my chats with national statisticians about the troublesome output statistics, I sense it was the word “baloney” used by Kier chief Paul Sheffield that irritated more than most other comments on the figures. The word troubled me, probably for different reasons. I take cursing seriously and the use of out-of-vogue slang emanating from the Italian-Irish-American inter-war gangster era for some reason just jarred. Still, the Office for National Statistics decided to hit back at the growing criticism of –…

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