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Tag: Office for Budget Responsibility

Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

There’s constant talk of this growth policy and that growth policy centred on construction. Big-looking numbers are bandied about. Then not a lot happens. Perhaps that’s just politics in the modern media age where it is assumed that the memory of past policies is overwritten by the latest. Cynicism aside, while the flim flam and bluster of politics is a barrier to getting useful things done, more worrying to me is a seeming lack of understanding of scale. Put simply…

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What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

Listening to the Budget speech is often theatre, with oohs and ahhs. Reading the documents is more often a prosaic task punctuated with eh? and what? This Budget provided no exception. Even though it failed to light fires for the construction industry, it did provide interest. George Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme captured the imagination as he spoke. Sadly, unpicking the detail, such as it is, there is plenty of scope for both questions and concern. The Chancellor was not…

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Has the Office for Budget Responsibility misread the housing market?

Has the Office for Budget Responsibility misread the housing market?

There seems to be a fair chance the Office for Budget Responsibility’s view of the housing market may be badly awry. Why would that be that bad? 1. Because it potentially supports a complacent attitude among policy makers towards problems within the housing market. 2. Because it may well leave the Chancellor a few billion pounds light on stamp duty in a few years time. But before galumphing into why the OBR may be wrong it’s worth making a couple…

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Jobs and pay data do little to perk up waning hopes for growth

Jobs and pay data do little to perk up waning hopes for growth

The latest jobs and pay data released by the Office for National Statistics today provide little by way of comfort about the economy or, more specifically, for those in the construction industry. There was an improvement in the numbers employed with 50,000 more in employment over the past three months to May and 26,000 fewer were counted as unemployed. But we have seen a continued rise in the claimant count. And annual pay rose at an annual rate of just 2.3%,…

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Panorama points to earnings pain, but the worst is yet to come

Panorama points to earnings pain, but the worst is yet to come

The Panorama programme due to be aired this evening is rightly getting a lot of publicity with figures showing that people’s earnings have fallen in “real” terms by about 5% during the past two years. But you really don’t need particularly detailed analysis to show how hard people’s earnings have been hit. As this blog has shown before, while pay has been hit hard in real terms, construction folk have taken a much heftier hit than most.  Using the RPIX…

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Budget provides a shot in the arm for housing work, but there’s a sting in the detail

Budget provides a shot in the arm for housing work, but there’s a sting in the detail

A shot in the arm, said the Home Builders Federation release sent out after Chancellor George Osborne sat down. And the Budget certainly lifted the already rising share prices of the quoted builders quite nicely. It must be said that comment came as no shock, as this was yet another ask or two or three by house builders that have been favourably answered by the incumbent Government. Putting in a presumption in favour of sustainable development in the planning law…

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Has the Office for Budget Responsibility screwed up the Stamp Duty figures?

Has the Office for Budget Responsibility screwed up the Stamp Duty figures?

I appreciate that Office for Budget Responsibility is taking flak at the moment for being “optimistic with the truth”, but I can’t help but chip in with yet another gripe. I have deep concern that it has made a huge fluff of the numbers for Stamp Duty Land Tax that could leave the Treasury billions short on its target for the revenue so much needed to close the deficit. We are being asked to believe that by 2014 the Treasury…

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Better than expected, but pre-Budget forecast will not spare construction’s pain

Better than expected, but pre-Budget forecast will not spare construction’s pain

There was a widespread view, stoked in part by the new incumbent at No 11 Downing Street, suggesting that the first output from the newly established Office for Budget Responsibility would most likely reveal the public sector debt to be far greater than we had been led to believe. Understandably this miffed the ex-Chancellor Alistair Darling who quite rightly was irritated at the suggestion he was a smoke and mirrors merchant. Well, now it would seem that if he had been…

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