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Tag: inflation

Markit/CIPS survey suggests solid growth in construction in July, was growth that solid?

Markit/CIPS survey suggests solid growth in construction in July, was growth that solid?

The latest Markit/CIPS PMI construction survey provides on the face of it reasons to be content if not cheerful in these days when gloomy news is served so liberally. Its monthly PMI indicator for July read 53.5 against 53.6 in June. This suggests sound if not spectacular growth (see the graph taken from the press release (pdf)), which seems rather at odds with the more downbeat noises coming from across the industry.

Here’s what bothers me about inflation – for what it’s worth

Here’s what bothers me about inflation – for what it’s worth

The latest inflation figures show the growth in consumer prices remaining stubbornly high. The CPI index stuck at 4.5% up on a year ago while the RPI measure remained at 5.2%. These are extraordinary figures given that it wasn’t that long ago that fears were being expressed about deflation. But the figures are not that surprising to some. There have been voices suggesting inflationary pressures were far higher than the assessments made by most expert forecasters and the Bank of…

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How worrying is the latest jump in inflation?

How worrying is the latest jump in inflation?

The latest jump in CPI inflation is worrying – at least to me. Yes Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, had sought to soften views by warning with the release of the latest Inflation Report that there may be spikes ahead. And economist had been expecting a rise this month – although not this big. But looking at the hard figures, the jump of more than 1.1% in a month – a fairly rare event – seems…

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Honours even in “Osborne versus the oil giants” as pump prices fall by less than 1p

Honours even in “Osborne versus the oil giants” as pump prices fall by less than 1p

The official weekly fuel prices figures came out today and showed that the price of petrol and diesel fell for the first time in six months. This will provide some relief to those hard-pressed, oil-reliant firms within the construction industry. But the figures show that while the fuel duty was cut by 1p lease petrol prices dropped just 0.67p and diesel by just 0.5p. This will probably provide enough for George Osborne to claim a victory in reducing prices against…

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Panorama points to earnings pain, but the worst is yet to come

Panorama points to earnings pain, but the worst is yet to come

The Panorama programme due to be aired this evening is rightly getting a lot of publicity with figures showing that people’s earnings have fallen in “real” terms by about 5% during the past two years. But you really don’t need particularly detailed analysis to show how hard people’s earnings have been hit. As this blog has shown before, while pay has been hit hard in real terms, construction folk have taken a much heftier hit than most.  Using the RPIX…

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Budget provides a shot in the arm for housing work, but there’s a sting in the detail

Budget provides a shot in the arm for housing work, but there’s a sting in the detail

A shot in the arm, said the Home Builders Federation release sent out after Chancellor George Osborne sat down. And the Budget certainly lifted the already rising share prices of the quoted builders quite nicely. It must be said that comment came as no shock, as this was yet another ask or two or three by house builders that have been favourably answered by the incumbent Government. Putting in a presumption in favour of sustainable development in the planning law…

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Inflation rate will fall next month, probably, but it needs to fall sharply

Inflation rate will fall next month, probably, but it needs to fall sharply

The first look at the inflation figures provide plenty of room to be very pessimistic if you owe lots of money and are on a tight budget. The jump in the CPI measure of inflation to 4.4% in February was more than many forecasters had expected. It will inevitably add to pressure on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates – if for no other reason than a perceived need to restore its dented confidence. For the…

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Are we condemned to low levels of house building?

Are we condemned to low levels of house building?

Research released this week by the think tank ippr painted a gloomy picture of house shortages in England growing disturbingly in the years to 2025, by which time it reckons we could have demand outstripping supply by 750,000 homes. It’s a stab at trying to predict what might happen and there will always be problems with research of this kind. It is, for instance, not inconceivable that if Britain’s economy becomes less attractive we may see a significant rise in…

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Plant hire turnover slows

Plant hire turnover slows

The plant hire sector is showing signs of weakening along with the slowdown in growth in construction. The latest Index of Services figures show the lowest level of output from firms renting machinery and equipment since May. The graph above tracks this output on a quarterly basis against construction output. And not surprisingly the correlation is about as close to bang on as one might expect. As an aside, this will provide some comfort for the statisticians at ONS who produce the…

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More inflation worries as plant hire prices bounce back

More inflation worries as plant hire prices bounce back

The latest data from the national statisticians ONS on services producer prices adds more concerns over rising inflation for contractors. The ONS’s services producer price indices provide data on price movements across a range of businesses, including plant hire, that provide services to other businesses. The recession in construction had driven plant hire prices down hard. But now it seems they are bouncing back as is clear from the graph below. Prices in the final quarter of 2010 were 2.2% up on…

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