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Tag: housing market

Stamp duty – a tax rise that looks set to win votes

Stamp duty – a tax rise that looks set to win votes

There is obvious glee within the housing market about the prospects of a two-year period free of stamp duty for those first-time buyers who purchase properties worth less than £250,000. The £250,000 threshold captures practically all of them, with significantly less than 10% of exceptions that will be mainly resident in London and the South East. And the cost of this “Budget giveaway” the Treasury puts at under £300 million annually at worst. This figure is of course a hypothetical resting on the…

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Comforting data ahead of the budget

Comforting data ahead of the budget

As the Chancellor Alistair Darling puts his final touches to the Budget he will be relieved by the recent spate of comforting data. Last Wednesday we had employment statistics showing that the unemployment was falling. On Thursday the figures on public finances were far healthier than expected, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimating that the level of borrowing for the financial year will come in £12 billion lower than forecast in the last Pre-Budget Report. Today we had the inflation…

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More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

How should we read yesterday’s Rightmove figures showing the slowest ever March pick up in asking prices? They appear to be consistent with much of what else we are seeing in the market – a growing body of evidence that the recent bounce back in the housing market is faltering (see previous blog). The key factor slowing the rise in asking prices (see graph) Rightmove isolated was a rise in properties coming onto the market – up 34% on the…

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Is the housing market on the turn again?

Is the housing market on the turn again?

Today’s release by the surveyors’ body RICS of its latest housing market survey provides a little bit of support to both sides of the will-they-won’t-they debate on house price rises. Looked at nationally, the broad measures of estate agents experiences and expectations of house prices remain positive. A majority of 17% saw prices rise in February and a majority of 7% expect prices to continue rising. This will pep up the spirits of those keen to see evidence that prices…

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We are on a perilous road to the new normal – but at least it’s exciting

We are on a perilous road to the new normal – but at least it’s exciting

Yesterday I went to an excellent conference organised by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. I know it was good because I came away with a headache and a slightly befuddled mind, but invigorated nevertheless. What made it more interesting was that on the train into London I read Martin Wolf’s column in the Financial Times, which in retrospect provided a fitting overture to the day, despite the link in subject matter being a bit distant from the UK housing market. His…

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Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from the British Retail Consortium showing the worst January sales data for 15 years. Those who take a different perspective will write the slump in sales off to the coldest January…

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Forecasts point to a tough and risky road ahead for construction

Forecasts point to a tough and risky road ahead for construction

The latest Experian forecast is out today and it paints a broadly similar, albeit slightly more optimistic, picture to that of the recently released forecast from the Construction Products Association. The main point of departure is on the views towards housing. Here the Experian forecasters are more bullish, if you can say that about a market that even by 2012 is expected to be almost 30% smaller than it was before the credit crunch. Experian’s expectation of a faster improvement…

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Are UK houses really worth 6% more than a year ago?

Are UK houses really worth 6% more than a year ago?

The final Halifax index for 2009 has been released and it settles on a December 2009 average house price 5.6% above that of December 2008. This is roughly in line with the figures from Nationwide which show a 5.9% rise. It is easy from this to draw the conclusion that on average your house is worth about 6% more than a year ago. That would be an ill-advised assumption at best and foolish at worst.

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….

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Housing recovery is resting on happier family homes market

Housing recovery is resting on happier family homes market

The latest swathe of housing data continues to suggest a pick up both in prices and activity and the RICS November house price survey, released today, adds further weight to the case for a housing recovery. Its measures for sales, expected sales, new inquiries, new instructions, prices and expected prices are all in soundly positive territory, although the rate of improvement appears to have slackened. This survey follows the release of a stack of housing indices pointing upward on prices….

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