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Tag: GDP

Mood grows gloomier among construction industry forecasters

Mood grows gloomier among construction industry forecasters

The mood among the construction industry forecasters appears to be getting gloomier. Rather than a quick dip back into recession, in the opinion of forecasters the construction industry looks to be facing a more protracted swim through recessionary waters before reaching firm ground and growth again. Experian downgraded its expectations for growth fairly markedly from its spring to summer forecast. And this follows the Construction Products Association shading down its forecast earlier this month. Both seem to be far less…

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Construction output figures in the dock: the case for the defence

Construction output figures in the dock: the case for the defence

In my chats with national statisticians about the troublesome output statistics, I sense it was the word “baloney” used by Kier chief Paul Sheffield that irritated more than most other comments on the figures. The word troubled me, probably for different reasons. I take cursing seriously and the use of out-of-vogue slang emanating from the Italian-Irish-American inter-war gangster era for some reason just jarred. Still, the Office for National Statistics decided to hit back at the growing criticism of –…

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We need a thorough review of the construction figures new and old

We need a thorough review of the construction figures new and old

The latest release of construction output data underlines the critical importance of examining the accuracy and timing of the data, both the new series and the old. Calculations show that even slight variations to the current data can have a profound impact on the message the figures are sending to policy makers and business users. This is partly because of the high volatility in the construction market and the timing of the severe weather last winter, which brought much of…

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Bad, but the GDP estimate for construction probably overstates the drop

Bad, but the GDP estimate for construction probably overstates the drop

The economy is flatlining – that is the assessment we are encouraged to draw from the first stab at national output by the statisticians at ONS. The 0.5% growth in the first quarter of this year to counter the 0.5% snow induced fall in 2010 Q4 was very much in line with the consensus view among economists. So it will not come as a surprise. But the stagnation over the past six months implied by the figures is a blow…

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2010 saw fastest growth since the 1980s boom – but we are on the way down again

2010 saw fastest growth since the 1980s boom – but we are on the way down again

The impact of the economic stimulus on construction is clear when we look at the phenomenal growth the industry enjoyed in 2010. The latest set of construction output figures put volume growth for 2010 at about 6.2%, although the amount of cash pocketed by the industry rose by just 3.8% as a result of falling prices. In volume terms this represents the biggest annual jump in output recorded since the late 1980s boom. And by the time the statisticians at…

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Construction probably didn’t shrink 3.3% in the final quarter…at least we don’t know that it did.

Construction probably didn’t shrink 3.3% in the final quarter…at least we don’t know that it did.

The figure for construction output within the latest “shock” GDP preliminary estimate figures showed construction output for the UK down 3.3% in the final quarter compared with the previous quarter. The release also estimated that the snow effect on construction alone caused a drop in quarterly GDP of 0.1%. Well did construction output fall by 3.3%?

Little cheer in public accounts or growth figures as construction prepare for the big squeeze of 2011

Little cheer in public accounts or growth figures as construction prepare for the big squeeze of 2011

Today’s release of the public sector finances will be a knock to the Chancellor George Osborne as they show borrowing up more than expected. Indeed at £23.3 billion (net of any financial interventions) in cash terms that is the most the UK has had to borrow in a month ever, at least as far as I could see. And tomorrow we will most likely see the official statistics for UK economic growth in the second quarter revised down – probably…

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Latest output data suggests the stimulus-generated surge in construction might be over

Latest output data suggests the stimulus-generated surge in construction might be over

The latest monthly construction output figures suggest that the surge in work seen in the mid part of 2010 is beginning to fade. A significant pulling forward of public spending helped to underpin housing construction, to propel publicly funded work and engender more confidence in private sector construction work. This created a swell in construction activity, which has caused some kerfuffle among economists as it has been the main driver of overall growth in the economy – although recent revisions…

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Forecasters at Leading Edge see growth after a shallow drop next year

Forecasters at Leading Edge see growth after a shallow drop next year

The latest forecast from Leading Edge may provide some comfort to those who are fretful about the prospects of ever deeper declines in the construction industry as public funds rapidly shrink. Yes, the forecast sees a drop in output next year – 0.9% after 3.2% growth this year. But the Leading Edge team are optimistic that growth in the private sector will accelerate to buoy construction overall and more than compensate for the loss work funded by the public purse….

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