The good, the bad and the ugly to be found in the latest construction data
This month’s Office for National Statistics construction output figures have provided a conundrum for commentators. Are they good or are they bad?
Latest new orders figures cast a long dark shadow over construction
The construction new orders figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday suggest a truly scary year or more for the UK industry. We can find some solace in the general rule that it is unwise to take as your guide just one measure of activity in construction, given the trickiness of measuring the industry’s activity. There are much less worrisome measures of construction activity to be found. But let’s consider what conclusions we might draw if we…
Collapsing construction workloads push plant hire prices down to nine-year low
The worrying state of the construction industry is becoming increasingly evident outside those figures that show sharp falls in output, continuously weak orders and job losses. The latest Services Producer Price Indicies makes for very gloomy reading for the plant hire industry.
UK construction bosses need to make Government face the facts: The industry is in freefall
Construction output fell 2.6% in the third quarter of this year. This fall was slightly more than had been expected when the nation’s first estimate of gross domestic product was released. For informed industry watchers this was no surprise. The fact that revisions by the Office for National Statistics to earlier data pushed the recorded level of output down still further was also not a surprise.
What is the optimism in the latest RICS construction survey telling us?
The latest survey of the construction market by the surveyors’ body RICS provides on first reading some confusion, showing optimism rising sharply while workloads fall. The survey has produced a mildly negative balance for surveyors’ workloads. Yet it also showed expectations of improvement in workload, employment and profit at levels not seen since the recession. Curious. What lies behind this surge in optimism among surveyors? Are we seeing green shoots?
Some lessons to learn from the constant downward revisions to construction forecasts
The recession in construction will be longer and deeper than we thought three months ago. That is the message in the latest set of industry forecasts emerging this month. This may evoke a sense of déjà vu. Each quarter of late the forecasts have darkened. The latest set look pretty bleak as we can see from the graph.
Construction output continues its rapid decline
There is no getting away from the fact that the construction output data continue to look increasingly scary. If we compare month on month the 12-month total output for construction we see the industry over the past three or four months shrinking by about £1 billion a month, or put another way about 1%. The graph shows the direction of the annualised output.
Rather than provide growth, private sector new construction has gone into reverse
The construction industry is about 10% smaller than it was a year ago on a quarter-to-quarter comparison and it has been shrinking at almost £1 billion a month recently. That’s pretty scary stuff. It should be scaring the pants off the policy makers.
Desperate times for house building as starts take a dive
The latest house-building figures for England paint an extremely disturbing picture in the light of the housing strategy launched last year.
Construction industry forecasters are of one mind: It’s worse than we thought
The consensus among UK’s top construction forecasters is that things are worse than we thought. A week ago we saw Experian and Leading Edge downgrade their forecasts for construction growth. This week we see the Construction Products Association do the same and Hewes & Associates will follow suit when it is published shortly.