The latest official statistics show construction output fell by 0.5% in the final quarter of last year. That is in line with the statisticians’ estimate put out with last month’s GDP data. This fall fits with the raft of other industry data that has shown construction work falling. And it also fits with industry forecasts that construction is set to dive into recession again for the best part a couple of years.
What makes the latest survey of specialist contractors by the trade body NSCC of particular concern is that, for the first time in two years, it hints heavily at recession. It’s in the nature of surveys such as this to bounce about a bit, so it’s unwise to read too much into relatively small movements in its indicators, even if the readings are taken quarterly. And it should be noted that changes in sentiment about wider issues than construction can…
I have noted from conversations I have had recently a more confident air about the future within construction this side of the New Year. And the latest Markit/CIPS survey seems to add to this anecdotal evidence with its finding that confidence in the sector in January improved “to the second-strongest degree in the survey history to reach the highest since May 2011”. I’m not sure what that actually means in numbers but it sounds like a lot of improvement.
Latest Office for National Statistics figures for November show construction output shrinking on an annualised basis over the past three months.
Construction industry forecasters are now expecting a drop in output next year of at least 5%. To put that fall in context, there have only been six worse years recorded since the data series began in 1955. And some might see the latest forecasts as potentially optimistic as they assume the Eurozone manages to muddle through its deepening crisis.
Expect 2012 to start with industry forecasters shading down their estimates for construction growth. But while workload is likely to decrease in 2012, that does not mean that the opportunities for smart thinking and resourceful construction firms need also shrink. I would argue that the very decline in the economy and the stresses caused open up scope for entrepreneurial thinkers with ideas for improving the built environment.
The latest construction new orders figures give no comfort to those fearing a nasty second bout of recession in construction. The numbers bounced up a little in the third quarter but remain on a downward path if looked at on an annualised basis, as can be seen from the graph (more graphs below).
Who’s been advising the Government on construction? The reason I ask is because if you want to get big bang for your buck in a time of recession in the short term what you do is invest in refurbishment projects and house building.
How much will today’s announcements by the Chancellor George Osborne really change the picture for construction? Will the promise of jam today, tomorrow and for every day in this Parliament really amount to a hill of beans? Well no. But if you want to carry on to find out why not, here we go. I’ll start by trying to get a handle on what the funding gap might be for construction. In fairness its all a bit hypothetical and rests…
Construction plant hire prices jumped almost 4% in the third quarter of this year, according to the latest set of official figures for services producer prices. The data suggests that prices are up more than 4.2% on a year ago. Less than inflation, but it that’ll be welcomed as good news for plant hirers. It will however not be received so favourably by the contracting community which is already under severe cost pressures and struggling to hold their prices, it…