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Tag: construction industry

As official figures point to decline, Markit/CIPS survey suggests the good times are back

As official figures point to decline, Markit/CIPS survey suggests the good times are back

The latest construction survey from Markit/CIPS points once again to an industry firmly in growth. Its main PMI indicator for April reads 55.8, with 50 being no growth. This reading will put more heat into the row over whether the official statistics that show construction in recession provide a fair reading. Although the Markit/CIPS survey shows suggests a slight relaxation in growth when compared with last month’s reading, it continues a trend that points to pretty respectable growth. The recent readings…

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How the 3% fall in construction output could have been worse

How the 3% fall in construction output could have been worse

The estimated collapse of 3% in construction output in the first quarter could so easily have been much worse had the methodology team at ONS not spotted a quirk in the seasonal pattern. This led to an adjustment upward from a drop of 4% to the recorded drop of 3%. Without going into technical detail that I don’t fully understand, the connection of the old series to the new series in January 2010 created a “seasonal break”. There’s a whole host of…

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Plunge in construction pushes UK into recession

Plunge in construction pushes UK into recession

Today’s GDP figures will come as unwelcome news to the Government. The data suggest the UK again is in a technical recession, falling by an unexpected 0.2% in the first quarter. A large factor in this decline in growth was down to construction. The GDP data for construction suggest the industry saw a 3% decline in the first quarter of this year. This follows a fall of 0.2% in the final quarter of last year and technically puts construction into…

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What if ONS reports a construction collapse tomorrow?

What if ONS reports a construction collapse tomorrow?

Tomorrow we get the first hint of how construction might perform this year when the Gross Domestic Product preliminary estimate figures for the first quarter are released. Looking at the initial data on construction output for this year, I suggest everyone should be prepared for a nasty number to emerge within the data for construction’s contribution. But while I think it likely, that doesn’t mean it will. There are things we don’t know. What will early returns for March show?…

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The positive possibilities emerging from some very negative probabilities for construction

The positive possibilities emerging from some very negative probabilities for construction

There’s very often a paradoxical upside to bad news, as I’m sure the Taoists among us will readily accept. It will be disturbing news if the next set of stats show that measured construction output collapsed in the first of this year. But, weird as it may seem, that might just provide a fillip for real action to support an industry that gets more political attention than it does sensible assistance. Let’s start the story from the growing media attention…

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Construction seems to be back in recession and this time its the big firms in the firing line

Construction seems to be back in recession and this time its the big firms in the firing line

I will be shocked if construction is not in a technical recession when the first quarter figures are published in a month’s time. That is providing the official construction output data for Great Britain released today is not fantastically revised. What is more we should expect to see bigger contractors squealing the most, as it is the markets they dominate that seem to be under most pressure. I have done a few back-of-an-envelope calculations and (unless I am very much out of…

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The latest construction forecasts may be more optimistic, but the risks haven’t gone away

The latest construction forecasts may be more optimistic, but the risks haven’t gone away

For those who like their news good, the story in the latest construction industry forecasts is that the mood is less pessimistic than it was three months ago. The two forecasts out so far in this spring round – Experian and Hewes & Associates – both tweaked their figures upwards for output over the next three years. Looking at this year, Experian revised its forecast from -5.6% to -4.4%, while Hewes saw a case to reduce the fall from -6.5%…

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The trouble with handing roads to private firms

The trouble with handing roads to private firms

The Government is looking hard at injecting private capital into supporting the under–strain roads network. That certainly was one of the key messages that came out of Prime Minister David Cameron’s speech at the Institution of Civil Engineers today. This and the tone of the speech tell us a few things about current Government thinking and also raise speculation about other aspects of its approach. Firstly, the green agenda is shifting. Until recently the preferred politics had been to lean…

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Construction employment holds up in 2011 – but fears remain over job prospects

Construction employment holds up in 2011 – but fears remain over job prospects

The latest national jobs figures may well provide some comfort for those in construction as they show that the level of employment held up last year. The number of jobs stood at 2,052,000 on the workforce jobs by industry count. And employment on the Labour Force Survey count stood at 2,165,000. Given the margins of error in the surveys the broad picture, as we see from graph 1, is of a flat jobs market in construction for the best part of…

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By how many will NewBuy boost house building numbers?

By how many will NewBuy boost house building numbers?

Praised in some quarters and vilified in others, NewBuy appears to have been misunderstood and over-hyped. It’s not, for instance, as some think primarily a way to get first-time buyers (FTBs) on the housing ladder and it will not generate 100,000 “extra” new homes over the next three years. It is in essence an allocation of the overall mortgage pot supported by an indemnity fund that is design to provide high loan-to-value mortgages to buy new-build homes. But while it…

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