Stamp duty – a tax rise that looks set to win votes

Stamp duty – a tax rise that looks set to win votes

There is obvious glee within the housing market about the prospects of a two-year period free of stamp duty for those first-time buyers who purchase properties worth less than £250,000. The £250,000 threshold captures practically all of them, with significantly less than 10% of exceptions that will be mainly resident in London and the South East. And the cost of this “Budget giveaway” the Treasury puts at under £300 million annually at worst. This figure is of course a hypothetical resting on the…

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Comforting data ahead of the budget

Comforting data ahead of the budget

As the Chancellor Alistair Darling puts his final touches to the Budget he will be relieved by the recent spate of comforting data. Last Wednesday we had employment statistics showing that the unemployment was falling. On Thursday the figures on public finances were far healthier than expected, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimating that the level of borrowing for the financial year will come in £12 billion lower than forecast in the last Pre-Budget Report. Today we had the inflation…

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Tax, tax, tax and more tax – a rallying cry for construction

Tax, tax, tax and more tax – a rallying cry for construction

This is a rant. Why? Because I can’t help myself. I tried to hold back. I read the first three chapters of the Low Carbon Construction Innovation & Growth Team emerging findings and I am now deeply saddened. I didn’t bother with the remaining chapters, but did eyeball the recommendations. I was not saddened so much by what was said. Much I agree with, although there is within the report some seemingly lazy thinking, particularly with regards to up-skilling the industry. This…

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Half a million construction jobs to go – it looks like a dead cert

Half a million construction jobs to go – it looks like a dead cert

Construction has now lost 213,000 jobs since the recession started to kick in the autumn of 2008, according to the latest figures. That is about 10% of the workforce. That sounds like a lot and it is. But given the severity of the fall in construction workload to date it is less than you might have imagined. So far we have seen construction output fall by more than 13.4% since the peak at the second quarter of 2008. Meanwhile the…

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More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

How should we read yesterday’s Rightmove figures showing the slowest ever March pick up in asking prices? They appear to be consistent with much of what else we are seeing in the market – a growing body of evidence that the recent bounce back in the housing market is faltering (see previous blog). The key factor slowing the rise in asking prices (see graph) Rightmove isolated was a rise in properties coming onto the market – up 34% on the…

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Is the housing market on the turn again?

Is the housing market on the turn again?

Today’s release by the surveyors’ body RICS of its latest housing market survey provides a little bit of support to both sides of the will-they-won’t-they debate on house price rises. Looked at nationally, the broad measures of estate agents experiences and expectations of house prices remain positive. A majority of 17% saw prices rise in February and a majority of 7% expect prices to continue rising. This will pep up the spirits of those keen to see evidence that prices…

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Housing shortage, what housing shortage?

Housing shortage, what housing shortage?

Few people disagree with the notion that there is a housing shortage in England. It is trotted out both as an argument for more social homes and as an underlying case for ever increasing house prices. I too subscribe to the view that we need to increase and enhance the English, and indeed UK, housing stock. But here is something that caught my eye when I was checking out some figures recently. Consider this: according to the Survey of English…

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Growth eludes construction as economy grows –that’s how CIPS sees it

Growth eludes construction as economy grows –that’s how CIPS sees it

The latest set of figures from the buyers’ body CIPS shows that construction remains mired in recession and the general pattern painted by the numbers provides little scope for optimism. The level of incoming orders fell for the third month in a row, says the report. And this will be from a low base. It all rather poses the question: where to from here? It is perhaps ironic, given the figures, that the survey shows expectations for activity over the next…

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Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

The UK is coming out faster from recession than we thought. But the hole was deeper. That seems to be the message from the statisticians’ latest stab at the nation’s output. The increase in fourth quarter GPD was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.3%, which will cheer many not least the Chancellor. But it seems that new data seeping into the spreadsheets of statisticians at the ONS point to the hole we were in having been bigger, with earlier growth…

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