House prices dropped over 2010 by 1.6% on the normal measure used by Halifax and appear to be on the way down. Meanwhile the Bank of England reinforced what we already knew –or at least thought we knew – that the appetite for mortgages waned markedly in the final quarter of 2010 and is expected to decline still further this quarter. So, things don’t look too perky on the house price front (unless you are buying) when we add in…
The latest construction survey put together by Markit for the buyers’ professional body CIPS suggested that there are growing signs of substantial increases in the input prices faced by construction companies in the UK. It reckoned that the rate of inflation was the fastest in seven months and above long-run series average. The survey panellists attributed this to the rise in raw material prices. I’m not sure how they work out with any great certainty the comparative rate of inflation, given the…
Happy New Year and here is wishing fervently that it progresses far better than those reading the runes might suggest. For me the year has started encouragingly and for that I must congratulate Grant Shapps, our housing minister. In May when Shapps took the ministerial reins attached to the wild stallion that is housing I argued that the first big question he had to face down was whether he believes house prices at current levels are sustainable or not. In…
The future for construction in the year ahead looks uncertain at best, bloody awful at worst. So I thought I would pick some numbers released in 2010 that might say something about the path of change that awaits construction, housing and property in 2011. I could have picked a host of numbers, but to spare you boredom here are just three.
It is not always comfortable being grim in grim times – I’d rather be jolly. But the job of brickonomics is as much to challenge as it is to – hopefully – help inform views. So it is some comfort when challenges made stand the test of time. Here I have provided three example which I hope support the case for being critical of the numbers. While I may be smug about them in my weaker moments, I am realistic enough to know that…
We are beginning to see the end of year-ish reading of the runes for the housing market result in a series of forecasts for price movements in 2011. On balance the forecasts point to a drop, mainly on the back of fears over unemployment rising along with concerns among some economists about the start of rising interest rates in the year. Here is a selected list of recent forecasts listed from the more bullish to more bearish, with their last year punts…
Today’s release of the public sector finances will be a knock to the Chancellor George Osborne as they show borrowing up more than expected. Indeed at £23.3 billion (net of any financial interventions) in cash terms that is the most the UK has had to borrow in a month ever, at least as far as I could see. And tomorrow we will most likely see the official statistics for UK economic growth in the second quarter revised down – probably…
Here’s a couple of graphs that hopefully will bring a little Christmas cheer to the statisticians at ONS who have been putting together the much queried new construction output figures. They may also bring a little cheer too to the statistics team that puts together the building materials imports figures, which also come in for criticism from time to time. Constant criticism, sadly, is the lot of the statistician. (And in the spirit of credit where credit is due, I…
The number of jobs in the construction industry fell by 17,000 in the third quarter of this year despite the continued swell in work resulting from the now fading effects of the economic stimulus. Indeed the rather lacklustre set of labour market figures released today may well be read by some as an early sign of momentum fading in the economy at large. Certainly the drop in construction job numbers will lead many to suspect that firms are already trimming…
House prices will be lower than today at least until the end of 2014. That is the balance of the views of City folk who trade in residential derivatives. The index Future HPI, put together by Peter Sceats & Associates, provides an index of residential derivatives trades and it puts the average price of a house in December 2014 measured against the Halifax index at £157,224. That is about £6,000 less than the average non-seasonally adjusted price measured by Halifax in November….