What is it that I apparently know that the Bank of England economists do not?

What is it that I apparently know that the Bank of England economists do not?

There is a heightened sense of concern over the fragility of the economy after yesterday’s speech by Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England and the release of its monetary policy committee minutes today. It all fuels the worry that we really are heading back into the deep doodoo. The downsides are obvious. The upside is that this should help to pull inflation down in the medium term, after a series of “special factors” raised the rate to a level not…

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Why a 1930s style private-sector house-building boom seems highly unlikely

Why a 1930s style private-sector house-building boom seems highly unlikely

As the parallels with the 1930s depression become increasingly unavoidable, I sense a new romantic surge of interest in the notion of a private-sector-led house-building boom driving economic recovery. For those not familiar with the 1930s private house building market, completions in England in 1934 hit almost 290,000. That is near on three time current levels. Never before nor since has there been such numbers of private homes built in England. The public sector was not workshy over that period…

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Reasons to be cheerful as the official construction figures show output dropping

Reasons to be cheerful as the official construction figures show output dropping

The latest official data seem to provide yet more evidence of the decline in construction output, although the picture may not be as bleak – yet – as the published figures suggest if taken at face value. You shouldn’t really read too much into one month’s figures anyway in an industry that can be highly volatile and that is going through a particularly volatile phase. But people will and I am obliged to do it for a living. That said…

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Experian shades up its construction forecast as public investment holds up better than expected

Experian shades up its construction forecast as public investment holds up better than expected

I was wrong. Not all the construction forecasts are being revised down this time around. Experian has slightly lifted its expectations for construction growth for this year and next compared with its summer forecast. In the summer it was looking at a fall of 2.6% and 3.5% for this year and next, those expectations are now smaller falls of 2.1% and 3.3%. This is despite a lower forecast for GDP growth. Experian had revised its summer forecast quite a bit. And…

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The dials are set for a long period of flatlining but high house prices that bodes ill for building

The dials are set for a long period of flatlining but high house prices that bodes ill for building

The latest batch of housing market indicators show no real sign that the UK market overall is either collapsing through concerns over the economy and jobs or rising on lack of supply. The pattern continues of house prices gently sliding nationally. But as the latest report released today by the surveyors’ body RICS shows London remains, in the eyes of estate agents at least, a completely different market to the rest of the UK. In London a positive balance of 25%…

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Mr Cameron, here’s how to build 500,000 homes and net £10 billion for the Treasury – well maybe

Mr Cameron, here’s how to build 500,000 homes and net £10 billion for the Treasury – well maybe

Prime Minister David Cameron has called for a housing revolution. So as the gloves are off in the battle to find new ways to fund a massive house building programme here’s a wacky contribution from me. It amounts to a plan to build half a million homes with no stress on the nation’s debt. It would increase liquidity in the economy in the short to medium term. It would provide up to a million job years and in the process would net the…

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How will the Government spend the money it raises from boosting council house sales?

How will the Government spend the money it raises from boosting council house sales?

Let’s assume the Government does manage to find the 100,000 extra council house tenants it hopes will be willing and able to buy their homes over the next three years under a revved up right-to-buy scheme. How much money would that raise, and how would that money be spent to develop the 100,000 new affordable rent homes the Prime Minister has promised? Naturally to the sensible lay person, the idea of selling a property at a huge discount to raise…

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Will Tory plans to sell council houses to fund new affordable rented homes work?

Will Tory plans to sell council houses to fund new affordable rented homes work?

Prime Minister David Cameron chose housing as a key theme for his opening shots ahead of the Conservative Party’s annual conference, announcing in an interview with Andrew Marr of the BBC a proposal that he says will create 200,000 new homes. Central to the policy is promoting the sale of council housing and also passing Government land to house builders on a build-now-pay-later basis. Among the political and economic advantages to the Government of both these schemes is that in…

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First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

Be prepared for a slower recovery than we were expecting – that’s that message from the first of autumn construction forecasts to emerge. Leading Edge had already penned in a double-dip recession for construction when it last produced a forecast in March, but now it expects the fall to be deeper and the recovery to be slower.

Serendipity, timber statistics and the search for a better understanding of construction output

Serendipity, timber statistics and the search for a better understanding of construction output

Serendipity led me from some UNECE Timber Committee forecasts released today to some timber usage data I wasn’t all that familiar with, more of which later. First the forecasts. It’s important to know that UK construction accounts (on the last count) for about 84% of imported softwood. This proportion is up on earlier years when the share tended to be in the low 70s as a percentage. Either way any forecast for imported softwood will be heavily influenced by the…

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