Brickonomics

The ubiquitous Robert Peston in his blog suggests that the Council of Mortgage Lenders has advised ministers that repossessions could rise to 75,000 next year. That would mean a return to the bleak days of the early 1990s when repossessions peaked at 75,500 in 1991, according to the CML figures. And in terms of the sheer number actual repossessions could be higher. As my good friend Julian Birch reminds me, the official (FSA) figures run roughly about 10% above those…

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Data released today showing the level of building materials imports into the UK provides a further indication of the depth of the recession facing construction. Historically the material import figures provide a good gauge for the state of the UK construction market. The data shows that in the third quarter of this year the UK construction industry spent £3.2 billion on imported building materials and components. In sterling cash terms that was the same amount as in the same period…

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A rough and ready way to judge future levels of constrution work is to look at the level of planning applications being submitted. You have got to be a bit careful about drawing conclusions too quickly, as many factors influence the decision to apply for planning consent, not just the state of the economy or prospects in the construction and property markets. But I was very interested to receive some analysis of data collected by the construction data people Barbour…

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A cut in interest rates by the Bank of England at noon this Thursday is being pencilled in by most analysts and economists, the only real question appears to be how big the cut will be. This may help the struggling construction industry – but not that much. The immediate issue for cash-desperate companies is not the rate of lending, but whether the banks will lend at all. That is why I suggest that the only way to save construction…

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The latest construction survey from the buyers’ body CIPS finds the industry plunging to new depths with civils and commercial work rapidly following the path led by the house builders. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for November reached a series low of 31.8 against a no change mark of 50. And most worrying for those engaged in the industry the employment index also reached a series low of 31.2. Well, the savage cuts in jobs we have been seeing daily rather…

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Further evidence if more were needed of the fragility of the housing market was provided today by the housing data business Hometrack. The national picture shows prices down 1.1% in November and 8.1% down over the past 12 months and a continued fall in buyers and properties for sale.

There has been a huge fuss over the Land Registry house price index with a lot of people seemingly getting hot under and over the collar. But why? What’s the fuss? Is the Land Registry really behaving “criminally”.

On the face of it the steady easing over the past three months in the monthly rate of decline in house prices measured by Nationwide is encouraging to those who want to see the market stabilise. For the policy makers there is growing fear that more and more people will find themselves in the uneasy world of having negative equity within their homes. This has a dampening effect on the economy as well as causing distress. Also policy makers want…

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Imagine that Chancellor Alistair Darling had decided to boost public spending by investing £20 billion of taxpayers’ money over the next two years in buying land and building homes earmarked for eventual open market sale. What would be the net result? Well we would have 200,000 more homes to help meet the much talked of housing crisis. We would save about 150,000 construction jobs plus many others in associated businesses. And what is really tasty is that the deal would…

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I can but agree with the Chancellor that these are exceptional times and they require exceptional measures. My complaint, as I have said before, is that it took rather too long for the bulk of the political establishment to accept the severity of the economic turmoil we faced. And sadly I do suspect that the measures he announced with the Pre-budget Report were rather less exceptional than are needed.