Brickonomics

The official labour market figures suggest that the construction workforce is growing. Surely this can’t be the case? When I eagerly opened the latest press release on Labour Market Statistics this morning, I was looking for some clues as to how much damage has been done to the construction workforce. The official figures up to the second quarter had shown the number of workforce jobs in construction holding pretty level at just above 2.2 million. However, to use the cliché,…

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As if the confusion over the credit crunch’s causes and effects is not enough, we now have the related confusion over inflation. What is a good level for inflation to fall to if deflation is a fear? We have just experienced a steep decline in inflation with the CPI measure dropping from 4.5% to 4.1% in November which followed the fall from the September rate of 5.2%. That all sounds very good and yes it is, but…

I am frequently accused of being too gloomy, which is upsetting to a sensitive person who likes to see the sunny side of things. My riposte is that while I might have appeared a bit glum when commenting on the numbers over recent months, in the gloom stakes reality overtook me some time ago. Take a look at the comments collated by the Guardian following the release of the very worrying data showing a sharp drop in the level of…

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Two bits of good news for house sellers and builders in the latest housing market survey by the surveyors’ body RICS. The graph showing the proportion of surveyors reporting prices falls appears to have bottomed out. And the graph showing interest from buyers has turned positive for the first time in about two years. The bad news is that the graph showing property sales per agent continues to fall. While the desperate might clutch at the wispy straws of hope…

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If you like your news black like your coffee, then the latest survey of the commercial property forecast from the surveyors’ body RICS will have you putting the kettle on if not reaching for the drinks cabinet. Expect property prices to collapse more than in the recessions of the 1970s and 1990s is the basic message. According to RICS capital values fell 24.5% from the peak in June 2007 to this October. But, it suggests prices may have halved by…

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The futures market has marked house prices down further following the release of the latest Halifax figures and now predicts a fall of 46% in cash terms from peak to a trough in 2011. According to the Tradition Future HPI the price of an average house will plunge to £109,108 by November 2011 against the peak price of 201,081 reached in August 2007 – as measured on the non-seasonally adjusted Halifax index. Prices, says Tradition, are not forecast to rise…

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Car sales have fallen off a cliff. The latest figures from the motor trade body smmt show that in November sales were more than a third down on the same month a year ago. This news reminded me of a spookily strong relationship between new car sales and the official data for private housing repair, maintenance and improvement. The figures, roughly speaking, suggest that the level of private housing rmi work follows a similar path to car sales, but about…

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I was quick out of the blocks this morning keen and eager to get my hands on the latest construction output figures. Sad really, but it keeps me happy. Until this morning that is. Hot on 9:30 I downloaded the press release. Here is the release. oec1208a.pdf It showed construction down 1%. That was more than expected. I did a bit of mashing of figures and found the spreadsheet data didn’t match the press release. I spoke to the ever…

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The Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates to just 2% today, the lowest in its 300 plus years, will come as a relief to some. But in reality the Bank is near powerless to influence the direction of house prices or the rate of their decline.

The Halifax has just recorded its second biggest house price fall in its 25 year history. The average price of a British home fell 2.6% in November according to the mortgage lender’s figures. It means house prices have fallen on the Halifax unadjusted measure by 19% since last August and 16.2% on the year. The Halifax adjusted measure for the annual fall, which smooths the figures over three month periods, puts the annual fall at 14.9%.