Brickonomics

The uber-bearish traders in house price futures appear to have softened their view on the depth of the slump in house prices quite markedly over the past month or so. At the turn of the year you could have bought a notional average house three years hence on the futures market for less than £110,000. That is against the peak price, as measured on the Halifax monthly non-seasonally adjusted index, of £201,081. The May three year house price rose to…

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The good news is that after the monstrous distraction over the past month cause by raking over expense claims made by MPs we are getting back to debate about things that really will shape our lives – notably how much dosh there is (or rather isn’t) in the Treasury coffers and how much the Government might have to spend. The bad news is that even from the scantest of glances at the Treasury figures as we see on the TV…

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The latest housing market report from the surveyors’ body RICS will provide further cheer for most of those selling homes. The June 2009 report suggests that the pace of collapse in prices continues to ease, the volume of sales has nudged up and there appear to be more buyers. And there is an ever decreasing amount of homes competing for the rising number of buyers. This survey does seem to fit with the trend of earlier RICS surveys and a…

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It was with genuine shock that I looked at the latest output figures. I was busy finishing something off when Noble Francis of the Construction Products Association called to ask if I’d seen the figures. I thought he was pulling my chain when he read over the numbers. I’m regarded as gloomy, but I have been well and truly trumped if these figures remain unrevised. Output down 9.2% on the quarter and 16.5% on the same period a year ago….

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As we rage about the cost to the taxpayer of 80p bath plugs and the construction of elaborate duck houses, here’s a figure to contemplate. For every new home built in recessionary times, each taxpayer is about 10p to 15p better off. Not a lot maybe, but see 20 homes being built that might not have been and you can buy yourself a pint, if you’re not too picky. Build 100,000 extra new homes and you’re 100 to 150 quid…

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The latest survey by the buyers’ body CIPS shows a remarkable bounce back in the broad construction index towards the magic 50 no-change mark. The index has risen from 30.9 in April to 38.1 in May and up to 45.9 in June. This will no doubt be taken as a sign that things are getting back closer to normality. It may be true, but it is more likely not to be so, unless we recast the notion of what is…

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The relief among those connected with the house building and selling industries must be enormous at the moment. Following on from a set of more encouraging sales data and a fall in pessimism among estate agents, we had figures from Nationwide at the end of last week saying that house prices jumped 1.6% in the month of May. And this morning we have the release of the Hometrack figures showing no fall in house prices in May. Although the mood…

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Construction workload is expected to continue to collapse at a rapid pace according to the latest industry survey by the surveyors’ body RICS. Surveyors experienced declines in workload across all regions and all sectors illustrating the broad spread of this recession. Across the board, more than half of surveyors saw less work in the first quarter. The survey, which dates back to 1998, had for most of its history recorded a positive balance of between 10% and 20% or surveyors…

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The update on the preliminary GDP figures for the UK’s economic growth confirm construction activity was down in the first quarter by 8.6% compared with a year earlier. This puts industry workload on a level with that last seen in the summer of 2003. The figures have remained unchanged since the preliminary data was released roughly a month ago. The data show the UK economy shrinking by 1.9% in the first quarter of this year and construction 2.4% down, as…

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