The latest forecasts to emerge in the current round all see the future prospects for construction as far gloomier than was expected when the number crunchers examined the figures three months or so ago. Experian now expects a 12% decline this year compared with an 8% fall and Hewes has shaded its forecast down to -16.4% from -13.7%. These follow the downgrading made by the Construction Products Association in its forecast.
The latest Halifax house price figures showing a 0.5% drop, stacked on top of recent data from Nationwide, Hometrack and a range of others, suggest that prices may be holding steady. But what should we read into that? Which way from here for prices? Will this period of relative stability (a) herald a gentle uplift in prices, (b) be the start of a flat period for prices, or (c) merely prove a temporary stay of execution ahead of more punishing…
Has anyone else prodded the sums on the 45,000 new jobs promised in the Building Britain’s Future document as a result of the £1.5 billion pledged to stimulate building of 20,000 social and 10,000 private homes? I would have had a poke at them earlier but I was sunning myself for a week. Anyway I found the pledge of £1.5 billion encouraging, but the spin on jobs irritating in the extreme. Here’s why.
The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association puts the annual peak to trough fall in construction at a shade above 20%. That probably translates to a 22% to 23% fall peak to trough on a quarterly basis, which compares with the 15% seen in the 1990s recession. This is a sharp downgrade from the forecast made just three months ago and is evidence of how the industry’s prospects have slipped deeper into the mire, despite the much talked of…
I took a quick glimpse at the Average Weekly Earnings figures out today to see if there was an obvious sign of downward pressure on those employed in construction. Well comparing the average weekly earnings over the three months to this April with the same period a year ago we get a rise of 1.7%.
The latest forecast from the Council of Mortgage Lenders paints a more positive outlook for the housing market than it did when it last forecast in December. It now thinks repossessions this year will hit 65,000, 10,000 fewer than previously thought, with fewer mortgages falling into arrears and net lending shrinking by just £5 billion as compared with £25 billion. On the basis that if a gloomy forecast comes true it is probably because the policy makers were either not…
The latest figures divined from the property website Rightmove show that asking prices fell 0.4% in the month. And at first sight this seem a little at odds with most of the data coming from the housing market of late. There is data to suggest that there are growing expectations of house price rises among the public and that there is a dearth of homes coming onto the market. Potential sellers it would seem are holding on until better times….
What are journalists looking to provide when it comes to a news story. Well “TRUTH” The story should be Topical, Relevent, Unusual, with a bit of Tension or conflict and, very importantly, it should have Human interest. Now let’s think about it… …Unusual eh? …mmm. So if the story you read is going to be unusual that means…well it means the more good news you read the less usual good news is. So…that means bad news is the norm. Now…
It is not just because I have family in Norwich and support Norwich City that I took a particular interest in the “innovative” deal recently struck between the city council and the Homes and Communities Agency. Nor was it because I have a great deal of respect for the knowledge and efforts of both Richard Jones of EC Harris and Terry Fuller, now of the HCA. In a world where hot air blows freely, here are two people well worth…
The official employment figures released today show that the construction industry has lost just 40,000 jobs. That clearly is rubbish. Were the figures accurate and were the construction output figures accurate it would suggest that as the industry has plunged into recession overall labour productivity for the construction sector has fallen by about 16%. OK there may be a bit of a lag effect, but ultimately the output is in large part down to the people doing it, so I’d…