Latest housing market weather reports suggest little break in the clouds
The latest batch of house price surveys seem in harmony sat among the barrage of dismal economic news we have been subjected to of late.
They are broadly gloomy, but not devastatingly disturbing.
Demand once again seems to have slackened, while supply remains moderately perky. That is perky in relation to the low levels supply has reached.
The net effect is a further weakening in the prices over a period when one might have expected a higher a bit of a pick up in the market.
The graph plots four of the aim house price indexes, Halifax, Nationwide, Hometrack and Rigthmove and the RICS seasonally adjusted balance of estate agents reporting rising and falling prices.
What is clear is that since the summer prices have been softening. But the decline, on average, has been fairly modest. The average will of course hide the fact that some locations and some market sectors have been performing better than others.
London continues to act as if it has made a unilateral declaration of independence within the UK housing market. Prices there remain buoyant with a healthy majority of estate agents reporting them rising.
The more detailed market indicators within the RICS and Hometrack surveys show clearly that London has a far healthier housing market than in other parts of the country.
The Hometrack “time on the market” indicator shows homes selling within half the time in London compared with much of the rest of Great Britain.
The RICS “stock on surveyors’ books” indicator shows, roughly, between half and a quarter the level of stock per surveyor in London than in most other regions.
More worrying for house builders is that Hometrack recorded a weakening in sales which had been growing healthily in recent months. Growth in sales in May was boardering on flat. However this may have been down to a lag effect of the clutch of bank holidays and the Royal Wedding disturbing the flow of sales.
But whichever way you slice it, there is not much to whoop about if you are looking to sell homes at the moment. And that can only bear down on the number of homes built.