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Tag: Tradition Future HPI

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from the British Retail Consortium showing the worst January sales data for 15 years. Those who take a different perspective will write the slump in sales off to the coldest January…

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Bulls in the housing futures market turn sheepish

Bulls in the housing futures market turn sheepish

There has been a sharp change of mood among the traders of housing futures who punt large sums on the level of house prices at given years ahead. Traders had turned bullish  last autumn and even at the end of the year the Tradition Future HPI was showing a projected one-year out rise of 5% in house prices. That bullish sentiment turned distinctly sheepish by the end of last month and now the market has settled on a 1% rise one year…

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Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….

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Future traders think the tide has turned for house prices

Future traders think the tide has turned for house prices

The futures market is now pricing in strong growth in the housing market, with the Halifax index priced to rise by 6% over the coming 12 months and by 12% over 5 years. This is a marked rise in the prices from just a month ago and reflects the uplift in the Halifax index against which the futures prices are measured and the overall rise in other house price measures. The Tradition Future HPI – a derivatives-based measure of future…

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Forecasters call the bottom of the house price slump

Forecasters call the bottom of the house price slump

The increasing stretch of stable house prices is leading forecasters to call the bottom of the slump. The Nationwide late last month tentatively said it may be time to think the unthinkable that house prices may exit 2009 higher than they entered it. Last week much was made of the RICS saying it expected house prices to be higher at the end of 2009 than at the beginning. Wisely, there were heavy caveats and warnings over the fragility of the…

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Economists mark 2009 for the biggest fall in house prices

Economists mark 2009 for the biggest fall in house prices

If you bought a house in 2003 or afterwards there is a fair change that by 2013 it will be worth just the same or less than as you paid for it. That is the grimmest view taken by the forecasters at the economic consultant CEBR. However, looking at the most optimistic economic scenario, the CEBR forecasters think that house prices might just claw their way back to 2007 levels by early in 2013.

Futures market puts house prices in cash terms down by a third by 2011

Futures market puts house prices in cash terms down by a third by 2011

Punters in the residential derivatives game are putting a very bleak gloss on the direction of house prices. The Tradition Future HPI, which measures future prices against the Halifax (HBOS) non-seasonally adjusted average, puts a value of £137,233 on an average house in June 2011. Given that prices peaked at £201,081 last August, that is a fall of about a third in nominal terms and considerably more in real terms. No wonder the figures tempt the Director of Tradition, Peter…

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House price falls – but not ‘alf

House price falls – but not ‘alf

The Guardian yesterday reported that traders were pricing in a 50% drop in house prices over the next four years. Firstly and personally, I think prices may fall quite deeply. But I don’t think they will drop by 50% in “real” terms, unless the economy takes a pretty freaky turn for the worse. Then all bets are off. I’ll come to why a 50% drop in “real” house prices is unlikely later, but first (and I seek help here if…

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