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Reasons to be cheerful as the official construction figures show output dropping

Reasons to be cheerful as the official construction figures show output dropping

The latest official data seem to provide yet more evidence of the decline in construction output, although the picture may not be as bleak – yet – as the published figures suggest if taken at face value. You shouldn’t really read too much into one month’s figures anyway in an industry that can be highly volatile and that is going through a particularly volatile phase. But people will and I am obliged to do it for a living. That said…

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Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Lost in the confusion caused by the adding up error made by the ONS in the original release last week of the construction output figures was one rather significant change to the data series. In rough and ready terms the post-recession construction industry is now officially almost 7% bigger than we used to think it was. Meanwhile, the collapse in construction between early 2008 and early 2010 is now officially calculated to be 16.0% rather than 13.7%.

Construction’s downward revision yet to show in GDP figures

Construction’s downward revision yet to show in GDP figures

There will no doubt be eagle-eyed stat watchers checking on the latest official release for UK’s economic growth who are wondering why there has been no revision to the second quarter GDP. It still stands at 1.2%. If you remember the second quarter growth rate for construction output for Great Britain was revised substantially down from 9.6% to 6.6% and this was expected to have an impact on the UK GDP measure – knocking it from the 1.2% to 1.0%, all…

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5 reasons why we might be facing the mother of all construction recessions

5 reasons why we might be facing the mother of all construction recessions

It’s coming around to the construction forecasting season again and the industry prognosticators will be gathering to discuss the ups and downs of the industry. If I were you, I’d be bracing myself for some pretty savage revisions to what already look like pretty savage forecasts. Peak to trough in the 90’s recession we saw a drop in volume terms of 14% in workload. In the 1980s recession it was 16% and in the 1970s it was 20%, according to…

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