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Tag: recession

The real problem raised by the Homes and Communities Agency affordable homes figures

The real problem raised by the Homes and Communities Agency affordable homes figures

On the face of it the Homes and Communities Agency statistics for affordable housing starts are absolutely awful. I’m going to go out on a limb and accept that they look significantly worse as a snapshot of what is going on than the reality on the ground. The data suggest that the starts are back-end loaded within the financial year, so a drop in this half of the year would have been expected. Obviously this drop was greatly exaggerated by…

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No sign in the data that construction employment is plunging again – not yet anyway

No sign in the data that construction employment is plunging again – not yet anyway

There is no getting away from the fact that the latest UK jobs figures are depressing. There’ll be plenty of discussion about that in the general news. And it bodes ill for the economy overall and in turn for construction. But for those looking for gloom in the construction jobs figures, the data does not seem to support the view that employment levels are once again plunging. The quarterly workforce jobs figures were not updated this month. But the alternative Labour…

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Latest ONS construction data point to growth in 2011 – that’s not what the industry thinks

Latest ONS construction data point to growth in 2011 – that’s not what the industry thinks

Expect another row to erupt over the latest set of revisions to the construction output figures. If we accept the latest data, the suggestion now is that construction output in 2011 will be up by about 3% on its 2010 level, in the absence of a catastrophic collapse in the final three months of the year. The revisions added about 1% to official construction output in the first half of 2011. The most notable revision is to growth in output…

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Be prepared for a very different construction industry when we rise from depression

Be prepared for a very different construction industry when we rise from depression

This is no ordinary recession. This is a serious depression, the end of which still looks to be at least a couple of years away and possibly a lot further. If that proves the case it would have lasted longer than the Great Depression of the 1930s, although the recession would not have been as quite as deep. The well respected economist and Financial Times commentator Martin Wolf recently wrote: “The UK is in the midst of what is set…

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If the Government wants to a boost from construction it better be quick about it

If the Government wants to a boost from construction it better be quick about it

The latest official figures on economic growth are not encouraging. They are better than some feared. But the data all point to very weak growth once a host of special factors are taken into account and the general pattern is considered. The official statisticians at ONS suggest it is better to look at the second and third quarter GDP growth figures combined to get a better picture of the economic activity. That would put average quarterly growth of about 0.3%….

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Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

The prospects for construction are worsening, that’s the picture painted by the latest set of main industry forecasts. Even the least pessimistic of the forecasts, from Leading Edge, at best suggests the industry now looks to be facing two years of a second dip into recession. Hewes, which remains the most pessimistic of the forecasters, finds little reason to suggest that the industry will still be plunging in 2013, while the Construction Products Association forecasters reckon the industry will not…

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First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

Be prepared for a slower recovery than we were expecting – that’s that message from the first of autumn construction forecasts to emerge. Leading Edge had already penned in a double-dip recession for construction when it last produced a forecast in March, but now it expects the fall to be deeper and the recovery to be slower.

Serendipity, timber statistics and the search for a better understanding of construction output

Serendipity, timber statistics and the search for a better understanding of construction output

Serendipity led me from some UNECE Timber Committee forecasts released today to some timber usage data I wasn’t all that familiar with, more of which later. First the forecasts. It’s important to know that UK construction accounts (on the last count) for about 84% of imported softwood. This proportion is up on earlier years when the share tended to be in the low 70s as a percentage. Either way any forecast for imported softwood will be heavily influenced by the…

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Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Lost in the confusion caused by the adding up error made by the ONS in the original release last week of the construction output figures was one rather significant change to the data series. In rough and ready terms the post-recession construction industry is now officially almost 7% bigger than we used to think it was. Meanwhile, the collapse in construction between early 2008 and early 2010 is now officially calculated to be 16.0% rather than 13.7%.

Mid-sized construction firms are being hit hardest financially according to Experian

Mid-sized construction firms are being hit hardest financially according to Experian

Experian has put together what looks like an interesting piece of research that seems to support the view that it is the mid-sized rather than the large or small construction firms that are suffering the most financially in this recession. Basically it suggests that if you are a mid-sized construction company employing 51 to 100 people and based in the North East you’ve probably borne the brunt of the industry’s recession. Before going into more detail, it’s probably worth providing…

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