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Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

The prospects for construction are worsening, that’s the picture painted by the latest set of main industry forecasts. Even the least pessimistic of the forecasts, from Leading Edge, at best suggests the industry now looks to be facing two years of a second dip into recession. Hewes, which remains the most pessimistic of the forecasters, finds little reason to suggest that the industry will still be plunging in 2013, while the Construction Products Association forecasters reckon the industry will not…

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Why a 1930s style private-sector house-building boom seems highly unlikely

Why a 1930s style private-sector house-building boom seems highly unlikely

As the parallels with the 1930s depression become increasingly unavoidable, I sense a new romantic surge of interest in the notion of a private-sector-led house-building boom driving economic recovery. For those not familiar with the 1930s private house building market, completions in England in 1934 hit almost 290,000. That is near on three time current levels. Never before nor since has there been such numbers of private homes built in England. The public sector was not workshy over that period…

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The dials are set for a long period of flatlining but high house prices that bodes ill for building

The dials are set for a long period of flatlining but high house prices that bodes ill for building

The latest batch of housing market indicators show no real sign that the UK market overall is either collapsing through concerns over the economy and jobs or rising on lack of supply. The pattern continues of house prices gently sliding nationally. But as the latest report released today by the surveyors’ body RICS shows London remains, in the eyes of estate agents at least, a completely different market to the rest of the UK. In London a positive balance of 25%…

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First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

Be prepared for a slower recovery than we were expecting – that’s that message from the first of autumn construction forecasts to emerge. Leading Edge had already penned in a double-dip recession for construction when it last produced a forecast in March, but now it expects the fall to be deeper and the recovery to be slower.

A good planning system is critical, but right now the debate is a massive distraction

A good planning system is critical, but right now the debate is a massive distraction

The battle over planning between the build-more-homes lobby and the forces for countryside conservation is extremely important. It will define, at least in part, where people can live and what our treasured land looks like in the future. It is essential that we have a planning system that efficiently, effectively and more importantly fairly balances the conflicts between development and conservation. But right now the debate over planning is a massive distraction from the real and immediate issue – money. There…

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Worst orders figures on record suggest the worst on the ground is yet to come

Worst orders figures on record suggest the worst on the ground is yet to come

There are times when you hope you’re misreading data or that there may be an error. But it doesn’t look as though these crutches are available as I stare at the carnage implicit in the new orders data. The index, which represents a seasonally-adjusted price-adjusted measure of orders taken by contractors for new work has hit a record low. It stands at 57.5 for the second quarter of this year. Five years ago it stood at almost double that. (see…

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Don’t read scare stories into the housing figures – we already know things are bad

Don’t read scare stories into the housing figures – we already know things are bad

The latest CLG house building figures for the second quarter of this year seem to be consistent with the view that activity is settling down to a new post-recession lower level. Much has been and is made of the jumps up and down each quarter in the starts and completions figures. But this volatility should be and should have been expected. No more significance should be given to the latest drop in starts than to the buoyancy in the numbers in…

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Markit/CIPS survey suggests solid growth in construction in July, was growth that solid?

Markit/CIPS survey suggests solid growth in construction in July, was growth that solid?

The latest Markit/CIPS PMI construction survey provides on the face of it reasons to be content if not cheerful in these days when gloomy news is served so liberally. Its monthly PMI indicator for July read 53.5 against 53.6 in June. This suggests sound if not spectacular growth (see the graph taken from the press release (pdf)), which seems rather at odds with the more downbeat noises coming from across the industry.

Mood grows gloomier among construction industry forecasters

Mood grows gloomier among construction industry forecasters

The mood among the construction industry forecasters appears to be getting gloomier. Rather than a quick dip back into recession, in the opinion of forecasters the construction industry looks to be facing a more protracted swim through recessionary waters before reaching firm ground and growth again. Experian downgraded its expectations for growth fairly markedly from its spring to summer forecast. And this follows the Construction Products Association shading down its forecast earlier this month. Both seem to be far less…

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Half-term report for the housing market 2011 – fragile and flatlining

Half-term report for the housing market 2011 – fragile and flatlining

The two best words to sum up the picture that emerges from the latest housing market data would probably be fragile and flatlining. The surveys may have slight differences, but they all point to a market in a state of uneasy equilibrium. So, with a steady flow of disappointing economic data of late, this leaves wide open the question of whether the market has the resilience to avoid being tipped again into decline. The graph probably shows you all you…

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