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Tag: GDP

Comforting data ahead of the budget

Comforting data ahead of the budget

As the Chancellor Alistair Darling puts his final touches to the Budget he will be relieved by the recent spate of comforting data. Last Wednesday we had employment statistics showing that the unemployment was falling. On Thursday the figures on public finances were far healthier than expected, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimating that the level of borrowing for the financial year will come in £12 billion lower than forecast in the last Pre-Budget Report. Today we had the inflation…

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Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

The UK is coming out faster from recession than we thought. But the hole was deeper. That seems to be the message from the statisticians’ latest stab at the nation’s output. The increase in fourth quarter GPD was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.3%, which will cheer many not least the Chancellor. But it seems that new data seeping into the spreadsheets of statisticians at the ONS point to the hole we were in having been bigger, with earlier growth…

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Mum: Are we out of recession yet?

Mum: Are we out of recession yet?

You could feel the uneasiness among economists yesterday when the release of official statistics showed that the UK had just scraped enough oomph together in the final quarter of last year to stage a lacklustre return to growth. Most economists had expected the no-growth bar to be cleared by some margin. Instead the preliminary estimate figure posted at 0.1% growth leaves open the possibility that further revisions could show the UK still in recession. Unlikely, but not an outlandish possibility. Even…

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Does the whole GDP debate really rest on dodgy construction output figures?

Does the whole GDP debate really rest on dodgy construction output figures?

It has long been said that construction is an important bellwether in determining the shape of the nation’s economic progress. Today the performance of construction, or rather revisions to its measured performance, seemingly determined how close the UK is to recovery. The upwardly revised construction data put the nation yet closer to its official exit from recession. Whether we are in or out of recession has huge political significance. But for me it is interesting to note just how much store is…

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Recovery soon for construction?

Recovery soon for construction?

The torrent of economic good news gushing from economists and think tanks is almost overwhelming. Hell’s teeth it is a boost to confidence. But does this mean that the recovery is in sight for construction?