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Tag: forecasts

Why the forecast of a shallower recession is bad news for contractors

Why the forecast of a shallower recession is bad news for contractors

The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association suggests that the drop in future workload will not be as large as the forecasters had previously thought. The graph opposite compares the past three Construction Products Association forecasts. It clearly shows that with each progressive quarterly forecast the expected hole in construction workload has shrunk. Fantastic news you might think. Well think again. If you’re a contractor this is probably bad news not good news. And here’s why.

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….

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Forecasts suggest some rays of hope, but huge uncertainty remains

Forecasts suggest some rays of hope, but huge uncertainty remains

For those with an optimistic nature there was some good news to be seen in the latest set of industry forecasts with both the Construction Products Association and Hewes trimming how much they feel output in the industry will fall. Indeed the three forecasts came closer together in this round of forecasting as Experian took a marginally dimmer view of 2009. This convergence hints at there being more certainty about the near term direction of construction than there was. That…

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Economists mark 2009 for the biggest fall in house prices

Economists mark 2009 for the biggest fall in house prices

If you bought a house in 2003 or afterwards there is a fair change that by 2013 it will be worth just the same or less than as you paid for it. That is the grimmest view taken by the forecasters at the economic consultant CEBR. However, looking at the most optimistic economic scenario, the CEBR forecasters think that house prices might just claw their way back to 2007 levels by early in 2013.