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Tag: Capital Economics

Forecasters expect a fall in house prices in 2011

Forecasters expect a fall in house prices in 2011

We are beginning to see the end of year-ish reading of the runes for the housing market result in a series of forecasts for price movements in 2011. On balance the forecasts point to a drop, mainly on the back of fears over unemployment rising along with concerns among some economists about the start of rising interest rates in the year. Here is a selected list of recent forecasts listed from the more bullish to more bearish, with their last year punts…

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Is the housing market on the turn again?

Is the housing market on the turn again?

Today’s release by the surveyors’ body RICS of its latest housing market survey provides a little bit of support to both sides of the will-they-won’t-they debate on house price rises. Looked at nationally, the broad measures of estate agents experiences and expectations of house prices remain positive. A majority of 17% saw prices rise in February and a majority of 7% expect prices to continue rising. This will pep up the spirits of those keen to see evidence that prices…

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Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from the British Retail Consortium showing the worst January sales data for 15 years. Those who take a different perspective will write the slump in sales off to the coldest January…

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CIPS figures show construction activity in 2009 ending with a whimper

CIPS figures show construction activity in 2009 ending with a whimper

The buyers’ body CIPS has released its first construction statistics of the New Year and they show the industry continuing to decline in December. The construction index finished the year on 47.1, below the 50 no-change mark for the 22nd consecutive month. But there was some good news. The housing index remained positive for the fourth month running and growth appears to be strengthening. Meanwhile optimism among purchasing managers about future activity rose slightly. But as the graph shows the…

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Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….

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Forecasters call the bottom of the house price slump

Forecasters call the bottom of the house price slump

The increasing stretch of stable house prices is leading forecasters to call the bottom of the slump. The Nationwide late last month tentatively said it may be time to think the unthinkable that house prices may exit 2009 higher than they entered it. Last week much was made of the RICS saying it expected house prices to be higher at the end of 2009 than at the beginning. Wisely, there were heavy caveats and warnings over the fragility of the…

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