Brickonomics

Now here is a thought. Over the past months, the rate of foreclosures (repossession) per head of population in the US has been running ahead of the rate of new homes built per head of population in the UK. I haven’t got the precise figures on UK completions, because they haven’t been published. But on the basis of the NHBC data, I am probably well on the safe side. Crudely, the average monthly figure over the past three months works…

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If Mervyn King says we are about to head into recession, frankly it’s pretty much a done deal. No matter how much the Government says it wants to protect construction, in reality there is only so much it can do. The industry is heading for recession, if it is not already dipping into one. Wish as I and others may that this time it will be different – post Latham, post Egan – the reality is that firms will fall…

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The latest statistics from HM Revenue & Customs show that new record lows have been plumbed by sales in the UK housing market. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales in September dropped to just 38% of the peak level reached in December 2006. Taking a broad brush view, it would seem that sales will settle at a level of below half that which one might have expected in a “normal” market. The implications are that this will mean fewer than…

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I am sure I will not be the only one who draws this parallel. But I suspect it is a classic illustration of why credibility matters in both politics and economics. George Bush on the US economy, October 2008: “I have heard that people’s attitudes are beginning to change from a period of intense concerns – I would call it near panic – to being more relaxed.” George Bush on the war in Iraq, May 2003: “The Battle of Iraq…

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I’m not one for publicly criticising other journalists and their take on things. I feel vulnerable enough myself. But sometimes it is worth clearing up a bit of confusion. I read the Rightmove figures and thought no surprise there then, not worth a comment this time around. I then read various headlines and comments that made me fear the four horsemen of the apocalypse had just trotted by and coughed in the direction of the housing market. I took a…

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The latest projections from the cost service BCIS point to further reductions in tender price over the next two years despite expected rises in input prices. The latest figures show a fall of 1.2% in the first quarter of this year, followed by no growth in the second quarter, while costs have been surging. Brought down to basics what the figures mean is that many firms will be looking at greater risk and thinner margins, and in many cases nasty…

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Just over a week ago I had lunch with three economists, all with more than a passing interest in construction. Oddly, perhaps, for a group of economist there seemed to be a consensus, well at least on one topic. If construction is heading for recession then the Government is wise to spend to ease the depth of it. This is a view I broadly share. So, Mr Darling’s reported decision to bring forward budgeted cash for construction work should, you’d…

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Less than a fortnight ago I wondered whether we might see a return to Keynesian-style cash injections to buoy the real economy and more specifically construction. I recall other similar comments in the media. Now it seems from stories in the FT and the Telegraph that this thought may become reality. Though I suspect that the scale when measured against the massive construction sector will in the end prove more muted than the headlines might suggest. But leaving issues of…

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There was one intriguing bit in Margaret Beckett’s speech to the Housing Market Intelligence conference yesterday that baffled me at the time and I am glad to say baffled others. She said: “On land supply, there may be ways that we can reduce the risk to new developments, by bringing forward public sector land for development.”

I spent yesterday at the Housing Market Intelligence conference in London. Naturally I found it excellent. Of course I would say that as I’m involved in it. Bias taken into account, here is just one of a many of observations from the conference. Margaret Beckett gave her first speech as the newly installed housing minister. I was impressed by her willingness to put herself into the lion’s den so early. She was warmly welcomed and warmly clapped on her way…

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