Has the housing mini-boom run out of puff?

Has the housing mini-boom run out of puff?

All the gauges appear to be reading “set fair” in the housing market, so why the long faces among those in the know? The latest RICS housing market survey on the face of it provides every reason to suspect that better times lie ahead. This follows a raft of housing indexes showing house prices rising steadily for several months. The RICS survey has for three months now seen more surveyors reporting rising prices than reporting prices falling and the majority…

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Optimism alive and kicking in construction

Optimism alive and kicking in construction

The RICS construction survey for the third quarter of 2009 found confidence over increased workloads returning to the industry for the first time since 2008 Q1. This was despite an overall fall in workload across the industry as a whole and the fact that things would have been worse but for a positive showing from publicly financed construction. So are the surveyors right and we are poised to rebound from recession over the coming year?

Orders figures continue to point to a rougher road ahead

Orders figures continue to point to a rougher road ahead

For those poring over the latest new orders figures released today to find guidance on the future of construction activity I suspect there is something for the optimists, but rather more for the pessimists. It must be said that trying to discern sensible insight from examining the orders figures month by month is probably as fruitful as peering and prodding hourly at the scab on a grazed knee to see how it’s healing. You more or less know how long…

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Falling construction helps hold UK in recession

Falling construction helps hold UK in recession

An estimated fall of 1.1% in construction output in the third quarter of this year has helped to hold the UK economic growth in recessionary territory. Much to the surprise of many analysts the UK economy appears to have remained in recession, with GDP output falling 0.4% in the three months of July, August and September. These are however only preliminary estimates and will be revised. And in recent quarters revisions to the estimated construction output have caused sharp revisions….

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Why let planning just look like a lottery? Make it one

Why let planning just look like a lottery? Make it one

On the subject of Grant Shapps and John Healey, I attended the Housing Market Intelligence conference last week at which both spoke. I obviously recommend the conference because I have a vested interest in it and indeed the associated report, which I edit. But that is not the point. While the presentation styles of the two politicans could not have been more different, there was one thread I noticed that appeared to tie the two presentations together. Given that this…

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Food for thought for would-be housing minister

Food for thought for would-be housing minister

The Building and Social Housing Foundation has emailed its latest report “The Future of Housing“, which has just been published. It would be rather tricky to summarise the document other than to say it provides a critical look at the state of the post-credit-crunch housing market. The report is a synthesis of a meeting instigated by BSHF bringing together three dozen or so practitioners and academics from different housing-related disciplines, some with overseas experience, for three days of discussion and…

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Forecasts suggest some rays of hope, but huge uncertainty remains

Forecasts suggest some rays of hope, but huge uncertainty remains

For those with an optimistic nature there was some good news to be seen in the latest set of industry forecasts with both the Construction Products Association and Hewes trimming how much they feel output in the industry will fall. Indeed the three forecasts came closer together in this round of forecasting as Experian took a marginally dimmer view of 2009. This convergence hints at there being more certainty about the near term direction of construction than there was. That…

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Future traders think the tide has turned for house prices

Future traders think the tide has turned for house prices

The futures market is now pricing in strong growth in the housing market, with the Halifax index priced to rise by 6% over the coming 12 months and by 12% over 5 years. This is a marked rise in the prices from just a month ago and reflects the uplift in the Halifax index against which the futures prices are measured and the overall rise in other house price measures. The Tradition Future HPI – a derivatives-based measure of future…

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Contractors are bagging a third less new work than at peak

Contractors are bagging a third less new work than at peak

The latest new orders figures provide a sobering injection of reality after the barrage of “it’s okay the recession is over” talk that seems rife. Yes the rate of collapse has slowed. But it’s the level that really matters at the moment. Forgetting seasonal adjusted constant price measures, if we compare the amount of work contractors have bagged over the preceding 12 months in cash terms we see the amount still dwindling.