We are on a perilous road to the new normal – but at least it’s exciting

We are on a perilous road to the new normal – but at least it’s exciting

Yesterday I went to an excellent conference organised by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. I know it was good because I came away with a headache and a slightly befuddled mind, but invigorated nevertheless. What made it more interesting was that on the train into London I read Martin Wolf’s column in the Financial Times, which in retrospect provided a fitting overture to the day, despite the link in subject matter being a bit distant from the UK housing market. His…

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Open Source Planning: naive, stupid or cynical?

Open Source Planning: naive, stupid or cynical?

If you think that the economy is posing a problem for house builders, you might want to consider the planning proposals put forward by the Conservatives. “Jaw dropping” was one phrase that an expert on planning matters put to me. “Concerning” was the more sedate and political word chosen by the Home Builders Federation, who politely suggested it was a high risk strategy with potential unintended consequences. I found the phrase “barking” coming readily to hand when I spoke to…

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118 000 a number to remember – 240 000 a number best forgotten

118 000 a number to remember – 240 000 a number best forgotten

118,000: The number of new homes that were completed in England in 2009, according to the latest official data. 240,000: The number of new homes to be created annually in England from 2016, according to the targets set when Yvette Cooper, Minister for Housing and Planning at the time, announced the launch of the Government’s Housing Green Paper – “Homes for the future: more affordable, more sustainable” on 23 July 2007. It all looks pretty grim, with house building numbers…

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Fewer redundancy in construction, but the future remains bleak on jobs

Fewer redundancy in construction, but the future remains bleak on jobs

For the optimists in the construction industry there is much hope to be gleaned from the latest employment figures. Equally for the pessimists there is plenty within the numbers to fret about. So what should we make of the latest batch of labour market numbers that, among other things, show that 163,000 redundacies were recorded in construction in 2009? 

RICS sees workload slump deeper in late 2009 – providing more fare for the double-dippers

RICS sees workload slump deeper in late 2009 – providing more fare for the double-dippers

It’s tempting to see the latest construction market survey by the surveyors’ body RICS as yet more evidence of a likely double dip in construction – however you want to define that. And I’m not going to sit here and argue against that possibility. But there is a case for some cautious reflection before drawing too hard and fast a conclusion from the headline figures from the RICS survey. Certainly the total workload figures (see graph right which is taken…

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Annual orders figures reveal extent of construction freefall – a £17 billion drop in two years

Annual orders figures reveal extent of construction freefall – a £17 billion drop in two years

The recession has ripped away from construction roughly £17 billion in annual new orders, despite £ billions more public sector sponsored work. That’s the clear message to me from the annual tot up of the new orders won by contractors released today. Forget the niceties of which sector is doing how well and you are faced with the grim picture of an industry in near freefall. In 2007 new orders in cash terms came to £50.6 billion. The figure for…

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Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from the British Retail Consortium showing the worst January sales data for 15 years. Those who take a different perspective will write the slump in sales off to the coldest January…

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How quickly can the Government cut back on construction spending?

How quickly can the Government cut back on construction spending?

It was put to me recently that, despite all talk of cuts to capital spending, many contractors held the view that UK governments have never managed to make cuts of more than 10% year on year. I wasn’t quite sure what to make of this, but three things struck me. Firstly: I wasn’t clear on what might have been meant by “capital spending” and whether the contractors may have meant just public sector capital spending on construction or overall government…

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Bulls in the housing futures market turn sheepish

Bulls in the housing futures market turn sheepish

There has been a sharp change of mood among the traders of housing futures who punt large sums on the level of house prices at given years ahead. Traders had turned bullish  last autumn and even at the end of the year the Tradition Future HPI was showing a projected one-year out rise of 5% in house prices. That bullish sentiment turned distinctly sheepish by the end of last month and now the market has settled on a 1% rise one year…

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God damn it, don’t you just feel richer…

God damn it, don’t you just feel richer…

When I see the house price indexes rising I can’t stop myself. I have to do a sum that estimates how much richer we are as a nation. Here’s how I do it. I head straight for the Blue Book (a set of the nation’s annual accounts, if you like) and flick (metaphorically, as I use the pdf version) to the balance sheet numbers. That is table 10.2 in the current edition to be precise. It tells me that the…

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