Here is a figure I love to highlight – just for the craic. It seems to get people all hot under the collar for some reason. The Blue Book of national accounts shows the official estimate of the value of homes in the UK. The latest edition, out today, puts the figure for the end of 2009 at £4,048.3 billion against £3,922.6 billion in 2008. That is a rise of £125.7 billion. Mind you, if you apply a deflator – say that…
It came as little surprise that the Nationwide house price survey should show a fall in July. And it showed a pretty significant fall of 0.5% on its seasonally adjusted series. It had been for many months among the more bullish of the indexes measuring inflation in the UK housing market, at a time when others were showing the market sliding backwards. But like most of the indexes, the Nationwide has had to draw big conclusions from a rather thinner…
For those looking for reasons to believe that the second quarter of this year provided some relative cheer, it may be worth taking in the surveys from the FMB, which represents local builders, and the NSCC, which represents specialists. We may not be talking about boom times, but both surveys reported a marked easing in the recessionary pressures that have dogged the smaller firms in construction for more than two years. You have to read through the data to get a…
It seems that what was little more than a throwaway line about more public cash being spent on construction in the three months to May than in any other recorded quarter has become a bit of a thing on the blogs and I fear that the meaning may have been misinterpreted. So to clarify. What was meant was that more “cash” was spent over the three months than in any recorded quarter. This was used for effect. To get to…
I have just spent a gruelling chunk of the morning trying to square the GDP figures with the construction output figures, dogged by a mild hangover and a glitch in the numbers. I hadn’t intended to dive into the figures until a bit later, but I took a “have you seen the figures?” call this morning and so was obliged to get the brain in gear a shade earlier than it felt necessary. The thing is that a huge slice…
If you didn’t know what was coming, you could read the latest set of figures for construction orders and output as very promising indeed, with contractors both winning more work and doing more work in recent months. In constant prices, output in the three months to May was as strong as in any quarter since the third quarter of 2008 – you remember the quarter in which Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world’s financial markets went into convulsions. Certainly, after…
Construction lost 63,000 jobs in the first quarter of this year and has shed more than 300,000 since the recession bit hard after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. The latest employment figures are based on a slightly different assessment of the industry (Standard Industrial Classification 2007 is used) and paint an even gloomy picture of the trajectory of construction jobs than did the previous series (see graph). At peak in September 2008 the statisticians now reckon there were 2,364,000…
The latest survey by the surveyors’ body RICS provides further evidence that the bounce back in house prices is petering out. The surveyors polled had, on balance, seen house prices rise in June, but when asked for their expectation for the three months coming the balance swayed narrowly towards a fall in house price. Not that the pattern is even across the UK, the markets in London and Scotland appear fairly buoyant. But in swathes of the north of England and in…
The big question after today’s release of the Halifax house price index is whether the market is heading for a protracted decline or whether prices will stabilise and hold or continue to creep up from the trough of a year or so ago. It must be said that today’s figures, which show the third in a straight set of monthly declines, fit the pattern expected given the recent movement in what might be regarded as leading indicators for house prices….
I appreciate that Office for Budget Responsibility is taking flak at the moment for being “optimistic with the truth”, but I can’t help but chip in with yet another gripe. I have deep concern that it has made a huge fluff of the numbers for Stamp Duty Land Tax that could leave the Treasury billions short on its target for the revenue so much needed to close the deficit. We are being asked to believe that by 2014 the Treasury…