Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Pre-recession construction industry 7% bigger than we thought – statistically speaking anyway

Lost in the confusion caused by the adding up error made by the ONS in the original release last week of the construction output figures was one rather significant change to the data series. In rough and ready terms the post-recession construction industry is now officially almost 7% bigger than we used to think it was. Meanwhile, the collapse in construction between early 2008 and early 2010 is now officially calculated to be 16.0% rather than 13.7%.

Lacklustre construction output figures point to decline

Lacklustre construction output figures point to decline

The latest GB construction output figures follow the earlier estimate made for the UK GDP series, which put growth in the second quarter at 0.5%. This was a bit lacklustre. The figures were particularly disappointing after the ONS put out a release which in error put the growth rate at 2.3%. This erroneous figure pointed to an upward revision of 0.1% to be added to GDP when it is next revised. This hope has now been dashed and will not…

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Mid-sized construction firms are being hit hardest financially according to Experian

Mid-sized construction firms are being hit hardest financially according to Experian

Experian has put together what looks like an interesting piece of research that seems to support the view that it is the mid-sized rather than the large or small construction firms that are suffering the most financially in this recession. Basically it suggests that if you are a mid-sized construction company employing 51 to 100 people and based in the North East you’ve probably borne the brunt of the industry’s recession. Before going into more detail, it’s probably worth providing…

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Forecasters’ views vary on depth and length of construction’s second drop into recession

Forecasters’ views vary on depth and length of construction’s second drop into recession

Hewes & Associates has once again come out with a sobering forecast for the prospects of construction that suggests a deepening recession with no end in sight within its three-year range. The graph shows how pessimistic the Hewes forecast is when compared with those of the Construction Products Association and Experian. Underlying this big difference in views between the forecasters is the view on the timing and speed at which the private sector will recover and pull construction back into…

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Pan-industry construction survey points to weak private sector recovery

Pan-industry construction survey points to weak private sector recovery

The latest pan-industry trade survey compiled by the Construction Products Association economics team paints a perhaps predictably gloomy picture of the state of the industry in the second quarter of this year. The survey suggests that the upswing it recorded in output from contractors in the first quarter was short-lived. The balance of firms doing more work and those do less is was put at -37%. That’s the worst figures for a year and a half. The more detailed figures…

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RICS sees some positive signs in the private sector, but its London and South East driven

RICS sees some positive signs in the private sector, but its London and South East driven

Viewed from a particular angle the latest construction survey from RICS seems to come out fairly positive given the current circumstances in which the industry finds itself, although it’s not as upbeat as yesterday’s serving from Markit/CIPS. Workloads are broadly flat according to the RICS survey respondents, which is a bonus in my book given the state of the economy and the outlook.

Markit/CIPS survey suggests solid growth in construction in July, was growth that solid?

Markit/CIPS survey suggests solid growth in construction in July, was growth that solid?

The latest Markit/CIPS PMI construction survey provides on the face of it reasons to be content if not cheerful in these days when gloomy news is served so liberally. Its monthly PMI indicator for July read 53.5 against 53.6 in June. This suggests sound if not spectacular growth (see the graph taken from the press release (pdf)), which seems rather at odds with the more downbeat noises coming from across the industry.

Mood grows gloomier among construction industry forecasters

Mood grows gloomier among construction industry forecasters

The mood among the construction industry forecasters appears to be getting gloomier. Rather than a quick dip back into recession, in the opinion of forecasters the construction industry looks to be facing a more protracted swim through recessionary waters before reaching firm ground and growth again. Experian downgraded its expectations for growth fairly markedly from its spring to summer forecast. And this follows the Construction Products Association shading down its forecast earlier this month. Both seem to be far less…

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Architects and engineers workload flatlines in cash terms – suggesting pressure on jobs and pay

Architects and engineers workload flatlines in cash terms – suggesting pressure on jobs and pay

The latest figures from the Turnover and Orders in Production and Services Industries data suggest that output in current prices from architects and engineers is flatlining. That translates into a real-terms fall when we take account of inflation. The graph shows the broad picture. And some will take comfort from the fact that the workload is not still in decline. Overseas work has tended to account for about 10% or so of the work and we will have to wait…

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US foreclosure filings decline in first half of 2011, but the numbers are still scary

US foreclosure filings decline in first half of 2011, but the numbers are still scary

Here are some stats that put the UK housing market plight into perspective. RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosed properties in the US, yesterday released its mid-year market report. It’s good news of sorts. It shows a 25% drop in foreclosure filing in the first half of 2011 compared with the final half of 2010 and a 29% drop on the first half of 2010. And the graph shows the trend has been down over the past 12 months or…

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