Brickonomics

The February figures for new orders were worse than the January figures which were the worst monthly figures ever recorded. There is perhaps little to add to the comments made last month other than to say if you are looking for optimism, perhaps the social housing sector may offer a few crumbs of comfort as the tide of recession washes in. It’s early days to call an upturn there, it’s a small sector and house builders are crawling all over…

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The buyers’ body CIPS remained muted about the prospects for construction despite a slight lift in the construction industry. The main construction index published by CIPS rose to 30.9 for March up from a series low of 27.8 in February. That means that things were not getting as worse as quickly as they were, but they are still getting worse.

The latest analysis by the Nationwide of house prices suggests that this spring has brought with it an unexpected 0.9% bounce in the price of houses. This will add some more cheer to those currently enjoying the blue skies, sunshine and abundant blossom. With so much to feel good about in spring, the temptation is to think that the past 18 months was a nightmare and now we are awakening from our unsettled slumber. I feel it myself. There are…

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I was intrigued by the response from the surveyors’ body RICS to the latest Bank of England figures for Housing Equity Withdrawal. The figures show a continuation in the rapid repayment of housing debt, as the graph below shows, and this will have had a major impact on the recent decline in the economy. Here are some very crude numbers to help put the scale of the shift in HEW into perspective. In the four quarters before the credit crunch…

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At a meeting recently I was chastised for being rather too glum, so I have been casting around of late for more colourful topics in these black times for construction. Positives are rather hard to find, but I had an interesting conversation this morning with an industry contact who has been working closely with Whitehall policy makers on potential construction initiatives. Relating the bare bones of the initiative he said a tight-knit rainbow coalition of construction and other related experts…

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There has been much joy in the housing sector at the news that the number and amount of home loans approved by banks grew for the third consecutive month in February, according to the British Bankers’ Association. While this is clearly not more bad news for housing and homes loans businesses it may be worth holding back on hopes that this represents the start of an upward slope.

What do the latest inflation figures tell us? Firstly, we are set for a heightening of the row between the quantitative easers and those leaning towards the views of the Austrian school on the matter of pumping money into a busted boom. Put simply what should we fear most: deflation or inflation? Secondly, it is wise at the moment not to try to predict exactly where inflation will be month to month. I woke up to stories of the UK…

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Following the release of numbers suggesting construction jobs increased by 47,000 over 2008 I asked for clarification from the statisticians. To my mind and in the view of anyone in the industry I have spoken to these figures were wildly wrong. I have now received my reply from the Office of National Statistics on its view of the workforce jobs figures for construction. Read it below. Can’t say I am happy with the response, as it doesn’t really provide me…

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Many thanks to Jonathan for commenting below on my thoughts on the jobs figures released this morning. He comes from a recruitment background, so sees the situation first hand, and he seems as puzzled as I do over the official data that suggest construction employment is holding firm at a high level. I have put a call into the statisticians and am awaiting a reply. My basic question is how do they square the figures they produced for construction output…

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The latest survey of the rental market by the surveyors’ body RICS suggests that the flood of “couldn’t sell” properties into the lettings market has led to a sharp fall in rents. And the expectations are that rents will fall further. This rather fits with a recent conversation with an agent who told me in some areas asking rents have fallen 25% – probably from a rather fluffy level earlier though. Now this is bad news for the established landlords….

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