Two weeks ago there was growing optimism within the housing market. One budget later and there is every sign that we may re-enter a period of deepening pessimism with commentary to suit. I’d be surprised if the latest British Bankers’ Association figures showing mortgage lending slowing isn’t seized on and thrown into the pessimism pot. But as we swing from a rosy view of the housing market to the blues what is really happening?
Construction output fell a further 2.4% in the first quarter of this year, according to estimates plugged into the official data used to calculate the UK gross domestic product. The figures for total output of the UK economy in the first quarter show a disturbing fall of 1.9%, with construction a major contributor. But a closer look at estimates for construction activity reveals that the ONS statisticians’ original estimates for last year have been heavily revised downward. In rough and…
I was passed a draft copy of the latest state of trade survey undertaken by the specialist contractors’ body NSCC. It covers the first quarter of this year and tells pretty much the story you’d expect – orders and inquiries down and firms working at lower and lower capacity. It is, if more proof were needed, further evidence of the pace at which the industry is slipping deeper into recession. But there were a couple of things that particularly caught…
Another little ray of good news for estate agents and house builders came from the latest figures from HM Revenue & Customs for property transactions. They do provide a hint of a glimmer of hope that the housing market may be experiencing some revival, with the highest level of monthly sales since last October. The figures show that deals went through on 60,000 homes worth more than £40,000 compared with 43,000 in February and 41,000 in January. It would be…
The direct measures aimed at construction-related activities and businesses in the 2009 Budget will be welcomed in some quarters, mainly among the house builders. Though I am not so sure I would go with the instant view from the surveyors’ body RICS that: “Measures announced by the Chancellor will help move towards a sustainable and vibrant housing market for the future.” But time will tell. From what I can see the various measures are small beer for the construction industry…
The latest batch of employment figures provides little comfort to the thousands of construction workers who are now looking for jobs, as vacancies in the industry have plunged deeper. The figures show that in the three months to March this year there were 12,000 recorded vacancies for jobs in construction. This is half the figure of a year ago. The figure is not a perfect match for the job opportunities out there, but the trend as shown by the graph…
The latest survey of local builders by the FMB suggests that more jobs will shed over coming months with a majority of a third of firms expecting to cut jobs over the coming six months. It has to be said that the survey for the first quarter of this year is less gloomy than the preceding survey, but the figures remain extremely negative. Two thirds of firms said they did less work in the first three months of this year….
For the first time in a year the annual rate of inflation measured on the CPI index dropped below 3%, dropping from 3.2% to 2.9%. The main contributor to the fall in inflation was lower energy costs, which contributed to a drop in the rate of inflation for housing and household service and for transport. Cucumbers too played their part, apparently, as the rate of food cost inflation fell. However the rate remains well above the 2% target and there…
The torrent of economic good news gushing from economists and think tanks is almost overwhelming. Hell’s teeth it is a boost to confidence. But does this mean that the recovery is in sight for construction?
The latest figures from the property website Rightmove suggest that sellers are feeling a bit more confident and are pushing up their asking prices. Rightmove puts the 1.8% rise in asking prices in April on top of the 0.9% rise in March down to the normal spring bounce. But the chances are that the more bullish noise from economists and politicians about the state of the economy will be helping to reinforce confidence. It remains to be seen how sustainable…