Brickonomics

At first sight the latest construction output figures provide some relief. The fall in output in the second quarter of the year estimated to be just 0.5% and there was a slight rise in the output of new work measured in constant prices. But then it is always worth taking a second look at anything in construction. I was warned as a young journalist: “Nothing in construction is ever quite what it seems.” So I looked away from the “manipulated”…

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There is nothing remarkable about the latest CIPS construction survey other than the comments, which are somewhat more guarded than those that accompanied last month’s data. It found workload in the industry still falling on its measure which registered 47.7 in August against a no change mark of 50.0. This compares with 47.0 in July. This was the slowest rate of decline in 18 months. The encouraging news, such as it is, was that the fall in commercial work was…

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Average house prices indexes may be on the rise, but the price of an average house is not. That, unless I very much mistake it, is the message from the latest Hometrack survey, which in August measured the first rise increase in house prices since July 2007. But as is well documented averages mislead and can disguise what is really going on, without recourse to lies or damn lies. For instance, had the Ashes been won on the best averages,…

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No surprises in the GDP figures out today, after the savage revisions made to the previous quarter. Things aren’t quite as bad as first thought. GDP was revised up gently from a drop of 0.8% in the second quarter to a drop of 0.7%. This was down to a more favourable set of numbers for manufacturing. Estimates of construction’s decline remain at 2.2% for the quarter. So hopefully we shouldn’t see too many surprises in the official constuction figures next…

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The latest Nationwide house price survey for August recorded the fourth rise on the trot and puts the average price of a house £12,500 higher than in February. Surely this means the slump is over and the price of houses is back on the way up? Well no, or should I say not necessarily. That is the view of most smart and informed people I talk to and also the view of Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s Chief Economist.

It’s a risky time to be owed money. Contractors and clients in the property world are falling like flies. So it was quite disturbing to calculate that £9 billion is outstanding in trade debt to the UK’s building specialist contractors. And that doesn’t include all the specialists involved in civils and groundworks associated with building work. The figures comes from some analysis I am doing on payment issues for the forthcoming CJ Top 100. I thought I would look into…

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Today’s Rightmove figures showing a drop of 2.2% in the price sellers are asking for their homes provides a reminder of the need to remain cautious about the direction of the housing market. The numbers are obviously being spun to point to the £5,000 drop in prices providing summer bargains to buyers. More interestingly perhaps though is that some of the biggest falls are in London and the South East, where sellers have enjoyed the better of things over the…

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The surveyors’ body RICS found that public sector funding was providing some much needed relief for the construction sector. The shift in the numbers in its construction market survey was quite marked. The balance of firms seeing a decline in workload reduced to -26 from the -45 figure in the first quarter of the year. The balance works on the basis that positive figures represent more firms seeing growth than see falls. So a score of -26 is still pretty…

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The recession is proving to be deeper than the Bank of England expected when it previous produced an inflation report in May. That in part explains the extension of the quantitative easing programme that rather surprised many commentators. I have cut and pasted below some words of Bank of England Governor, Merveyn King, on growth prospects, taken from his opening remarks at the press conference on the latest Inflation Report.