I feel sure there will be someone penning near euphoric words about the 18% rise in orders in the second quarter, which is the opening line of the statistical bulletin released today.

Ignore it.

The new orders figures bounce about like a drugged kangaroo at a rave party, only it’s tougher to make sense of the orders figures.

Here though are a couple of figures worth taking note of, in my view that is.

From peak on a quarterly rolling basis, new orders won are 38% down. That figure on an annualised basis is 32% down. A little blip from a low base is not going to mend that hole.

And if we bother to examine the blip (that is the increase between Q1 and Q2 of this year) what do we see if we look at the “volume” data? At least half of the rise is down to non-residential, non-infrastructure public spending. That isn’t a market improvement.

Mind you about a quarter of the blip is down to improvement in the work coming through in the private housing sector. That is encouraging and supports the view that housebuilding is at least pulling out of the tailspin in work caused by destocking.

It is too early to say whether this rise in new orders heralds a rise in actual workload on the ground. But it is positive.

The new orders figures are not good news. They are not necessarily bad news. They seem rather to support the prevailing view that we are set for a very nasty recession.

To hope one month’s figures will change that is as useful as wishing on a star, only less romantic.