Seven years of construction growth wiped out say GDP figures
The latest GDP figures showed a marked slowdown in the rate of collapse of the economy.
But the drop of 0.8% was significantly more than economists were expecting, if the mood judged by Reuters gives a fair assessment. The median of its poll of economist put the expected second quarter fall at 0.3%.
So we can expect some rather flavoursome language coming from those economists and commentators quoted in the media as they describe the impact on people’s jobs and lives of an economy that is already 5.7% smaller than it was at its peak.
Construction once again was a major drag on the overall economy falling (on very early estimates) by 2.2% in the second quarter, as far as its contribution to GDP is concern. The official construction output is a slightly different measure.
According to this set of figures, however, the index of construction output on a seasonally adjusted basis has fallen 15% from the peak in the first quarter of 2008 and is back to the level seen in the second quarter of 2002.
These preliminary estimates will be revised, particularly when there are more complete data for construction. A sharp revision in construction output for last quarter was a large element of major revisions to GDP.
The preliminary estimate of the decline in construction output for the first quarter was 2.4%. This was later revised sharply to show a drop of 6.9%.
I suspect the next set of construction output figures may well be scrutinised by more economists that normal, keen to spot if a repeat of last quarters savage revision to the GDP construction figure is likely.