Repossessions may be worse than in the 1990s crash
The ubiquitous Robert Peston in his blog suggests that the Council of Mortgage Lenders has advised ministers that repossessions could rise to 75,000 next year.
That would mean a return to the bleak days of the early 1990s when repossessions peaked at 75,500 in 1991, according to the CML figures.
And in terms of the sheer number actual repossessions could be higher. As my good friend Julian Birch reminds me, the official (FSA) figures run roughly about 10% above those recorded by CML in a way they would not have done back in the 1990s.
To put the figure in context it would mean about one home in every 300 being repossessed and about one in 150 mortgages failing.
I checked the veracity of Mr Preston’s claim and was told by the CML press office that no forecast had been made and they are currently discussing a range of possible scenarios depending on what action is taken on the economy.
That makes sense given tomorrow the Bank of England is due to axe interest rates, but by how much who knows. CML is intending to plump for a figure later this month.
But I was told “yes” when I asked if the 75,000 figure was among the possible numbers. I naturally asked: “So the number could be above or below that figure?”
“Yes” was the answer, or put another way the projected number of repossessions could be worse than Mr Peston has been told.
So basically all those who were telling me over the past four or five years that we would never see a rerun of the 1990s housing crash and the associated repossessions may be close to owing me a pint. The trouble is I can’t remember who bet me and who didn’t.
But what worries me more than not claiming any pints due is the scary fact that we have yet to see the full force of the job losses that are piling up and even more disturbing is that we are in a low inflationary environment with a whiff of deflation in the air.
This will trap those who have stretched themselves to buy their home for years to come.
While inflation has many downsides, the positive for heavy debtor is that it erodes the value of their loan.
Deflation on the other hand just makes the real value of the loan bigger – not a pleasant prospect to consider before bedtime.
One thing is for certain, if Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s moves to stave off repossessions are successful we will all be able to sleep more easily. The consequences of rampant repossessions on the wider economy are really rather scary.
2 thoughts on “Repossessions may be worse than in the 1990s crash”
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Brian – i’d say theres a good chance that those who told you there was no chance of a re-run of the early 1990s will probably not be able to afford a pint anyway, shortly, as most will have highly leveraged mortgages on properties now decreasing in value at a worrying rate.
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