Halifax house price time machine takes us back to the Spring of 2006
More gloom (or joy if you are a potential buyer) from the statisticians at HBOS as the Halifax house price index (not seasonally adjusted) shows a 12.7% annual fall from last August to now.
That is getting pretty close to the full 14.7% peak to trough fall measured by Halifax in the 43 months from July 1989 to February 1993. After that prices remained more or less flat for a further three years.
Roughly speaking house prices on the Halifax measure are falling one and a half times as fast as they were back then. And there is little sign of the pace easing.
But there is a little comfort to be had for those fearful of the steep decline, albeit psychological. It is in the nature of curves that the increase in the annual rate of fall should start to ease now we are a year past the peak.
Small comfort I know, but there were those who refused to believe house prices were falling until the annual rate went negative in March. By then they were already 5% down on the peak.
Meanwhile for those who have felt excluded from the housing market, or who have opted out into renting for now with the intention to buy in later, there is new excitement to be had in tracing the numbers backwards to see how far back it was when prices were as cheap as they are now.
Well let me save you the hassle. On with the Halifax figures the average price now is £175,408 it was last this cheap in March 2006 when the figure stood at £173,778, before a steep leap to £179,609 in the following month.
And in case you are interested in the implications of the view of David Blanchflower (the Monetary Policy Committee dove) that prices could fall by a total of 30%. That would take us back to December 2003, when the average house price was £140,658, and, if I am not mistaken, there were plenty of voices saying “House prices, aren’t they just mad at the moment”.